An outbreak of a dangerous, still unknown to most people, ‘paramyxovirus’ is also looming, experts warn. This is evident from an informal poll by de Volkskrant among dozens of Dutch virologists, epidemiologists and infectiologists, most of whom have been closely involved in the fight against the corona crisis in recent years.
In Europe, but also worldwide, various detection systems are currently being worked on to identify potential newcomers early. Although it may be years or decades before another pandemic virus appears, it is hoped that problem viruses can be detected before they jump to humans, so that they can be suppressed or vaccines can be made in time.
Potential danger
Many of the experts also foresee an advance of all kinds of tropical tick and mosquito diseases. ‘They are knocking on the door in Western Europe now that climate change is promoting new and larger mosquito populations’, notes medical microbiologist Mariet Feltkamp (LUMC). ‘The West Nile virus has already had a foothold in the Netherlands, and dengue and the Zika virus have already hit the South of France.’
But for a pandemic there must be a virus that can be transmitted through the air, the experts think. This includes the hundreds of, mostly unknown coronaviruses that are still circulating in nature. ‘I think you can no longer ignore the fact that this group certainly has pandemic potential’, says medical microbiologist Matthijs Welkers (Amsterdam UMC).
Many of the surveyed scientists also cite paramyxoviruses as a potential danger: a group of viruses that also includes measles and the RS virus. The virus family also has very different descendants that sometimes jump to humans, such as the very deadly hendra virus and the nipah virus. If such a virus learns to spread efficiently from person to person, that would be very problematic.
Top-3 viruses
Concerning the flu, concerns are about a possible humanized version of the H5N1 bird flu, which is currently circulating among birds, as well as an earlier bird flu, which has been circulating in pigs for decades. If such a virus evolves into a version that spreads from person to person, it could have serious global consequences.
De Volkskrant 50 Dutch virus experts asked the question: what do you think are the top 3 viruses that could lead to the next pandemic? In the more than thirty scientists who responded, flu and a new coronavirus are at the top of the list. Paramyxoviruses and mosquito diseases follow at some distance.
Notably absent from the rankings are the viruses that feature in many Hollywood films: Ebola and similar blood diseases, such as Lassa. ‘The Ebola’s and Lassa’s can periodically cause problems’, estimates virologist Marion Koopmans. “But I think such outbreaks remain more regional.”
Bacterial Threats
A laboratory accident, in which a dangerous virus slips out of a research facility, only one expert says to expect seriously. ‘Because synthetic biology is making great strides and more and more countries, people and laboratories are able to do this’, suggests Mark Sterken (Wageningen University).
Many polled academics spontaneously bring up another problem: resistant bacteria. ‘That is a silent pandemic, which already results in many deaths every day’, concludes medical microbiologist Heiman Wertheim (Radboud UMC).
His colleague Willem van Schaik, who works at the University of Burminngham, points out that an estimated 1.3 million people die each year from bacterial infections that are no longer available to antibiotics. ‘In addition to the many viruses with pandemic potential, we also have to take serious bacterial threats into account,’ he says.