The most important events and reports on the economy, central banks and politics from the Dow Jones Newswires program
Kazaks: The ECB can raise interest rates two to three times in 2022
The European Central Bank (ECB) could hike rates up to three times this year, according to Latvian ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. “An interest rate hike in July is possible and reasonable,” Kazaks told Reuters, adding. “The markets are expecting two or three rate hikes of 25 basis points by the end of the year. I have no objections to that, it’s a perfectly reasonable estimate.”
Dekabank: Services support German GDP in the first quarter
According to estimates by Dekabank economist Andreas Scheuerle, German gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1 percent in the first quarter. With this forecast, Scheuerle is somewhat more pessimistic than the economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires (consensus: plus 0.1 percent). In his view, however, the minus would be even greater if the ongoing recovery in the service sector did not exist. This is underpinned by a new indicator from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).
Ifo export expectations recovered somewhat in April
According to a survey by the Ifo Institute, the mood among German exporters recovered somewhat in April after the slump in March. Ifo export expectations rose in April to plus 3.5 points from minus 2.9 in March, the institute said. Despite the high level of uncertainty and logistics problems, there are currently signs that export sentiment is stabilizing.
Union faction is critical of plans for special funds
The Union faction will probably not agree to the special fund for the Bundeswehr planned by the federal government in the amount of 100 billion euros. The parliamentary secretary of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Thorsten Frei, explained that the federal government’s draft law “remains far behind” what Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) promised at the end of February in the defense policy reorientation. “What is currently on the table are basically really household tricks and nothing more,” criticized Frei.
Union faction sees traffic light on the right track with the resolution
The Union faction sees the motion for a resolution by the traffic light factions, in which they call on the federal government to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine, as positive and considers approval of further changes to be conceivable. “I have the feeling that it’s fundamentally on the right track. It will have to be seen in the end whether it can be approved in the end,” explained the parliamentary secretary of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Thorsten Frei.
Merz: Union is aiming for a joint arms application with a traffic light for Thursday
According to their parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag is aiming for a joint motion for a resolution on the subject of arms deliveries to Ukraine. The motion for a resolution formulated by the Union for the Bundestag serves “to get the coalition to bring forward and adopt a joint motion for a resolution next Thursday in the German Bundestag,” said Merz on Monday evening in the ARD daily topics.
Lambrecht: Germany facilitates delivery of Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine
Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has confirmed that the federal government has given the go-ahead for the export of used “Gepard” anti-aircraft tanks from industrial stocks to Ukraine. “Only yesterday we decided that Germany would enable the delivery of Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine,” Lambrecht said in her opening statement at an international defense ministers’ conference on Ukraine at the US base in Ramstein, according to her manuscript.
IWH: Different regional effects in the event of a supply stop for Russian gas
Stopping Russian gas supplies would lead to a recession in the German economy – but according to the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), not all regions would be equally affected. The IWH expects a much more severe slump in economic output than elsewhere, especially where the manufacturing sector is important. If it were assumed that the gas volumes in the individual branches of industry would be reduced proportionally in spring 2023, there would be a loss in value that would also have an impact on the other sectors of the economy.
Banking Association gets new management team
The Association of German Banks is reorganizing its management team under General Manager Christian Ossig. The work and topics will be organized into four business areas from May 2022, announced the banking association, which represents the interests of around 190 private banks and financial technology companies.
FSB: Emerging markets need to address foreign currency debt issues
According to the Financial Stability Board (FSB), emerging markets must ensure that the problems caused by high levels of foreign currency borrowing are contained. In a report, the FSB notes that these countries have benefited in recent years from ample global liquidity, the hunt for yield and low interest rates in advanced economies. “Shadow banks” (non-bank financial institutions – NBFIs) also played an increasing role.
Bavarian constitution protection law partially unconstitutional
The Bavarian Constitutional Protection Act is partially unconstitutional. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe ruled that several regulations violate fundamental rights. The 2016 amendment to the law gives the Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution far-reaching powers, such as covert online searches of computers using so-called state trojans or, under certain conditions, acoustic and optical surveillance of apartments.
Border controls in the Schengen area may only be extended if there is a “new threat”.
EU member states may only extend temporary border controls at their internal borders beyond a period of six months if a new threat to their internal security arises. This was made clear by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg in a decision on controls within the so-called Schengen area. This new threat must be different from the one that originally led to the temporary reintroduction of border measures. Specifically, the case concerned the border between Austria and Slovenia, which the Austrian authorities controlled again from 2015 due to the flight crisis.
ECJ approves upload filters for YouTube and Co
Online sharing services must continue to prevent the uploading of copyrighted content. According to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg, EU law provides for “reasonable guarantees” to prevent unreasonable interference with freedom of expression and information. He dismissed a lawsuit by Poland. The background is the controversial copyright reform, which is intended to adapt the requirements for the protection of intellectual property in the European Union to the Internet age and provides stricter rules for online services such as YouTube, Facebook or pure storage services.
Guterres calls for a quick ceasefire when visiting Moscow
During a visit to Moscow, UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres called for a swift ceasefire in Ukraine. The UN is “very interested” in finding ways to create conditions for a ceasefire and “a peaceful solution” “as soon as possible,” Guterres said at the start of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Although the situation in Ukraine is “complex” and there are “different interpretations of what is happening there”, dialogue is possible, the UN Secretary-General added.
Transnistria reports explosions at radio tower
Authorities in Moldova’s pro-Russian separatist-controlled region of Transnistria have reported explosions at a radio tower near the Ukrainian border. The Transnistrian Ministry of the Interior announced that two explosions could be heard in the village of Mayak in the Grigoriopolski district. Moldova’s central government convened a National Security Council meeting over the recent events in Transnistria. According to the Transnistrian authorities, no one was injured in the recent explosions. However, two antennas through which Russian radio broadcasts were broadcast are out of order.
DJG/DJN/AFP/apo
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 26, 2022 07:30 ET (11:30 GMT)