China’s infamous zero-covid policy? China’s Premier Li Keqiang said nothing more about that. He accounted this Sunday to the 2,948 delegates of the Chinese People’s Congress present for what the Chinese government has done in 2022, without saying anything about the strict policies pursued, which are disastrous for the economy and the population.
Li entered the huge hall around 9:00 a.m. as the delegates clapped to marching music while standing. He read the so-called work report, which also states what the plans are for the coming year.
But Li no longer plays a role in the implementation of those plans. He will step down as Prime Minister towards the end of this People’s Congress after ten years, and then, like his predecessors, will probably almost completely disappear from public view. He will go down in history as the man who was unable to emerge from the shadow of the increasingly all-powerful president and party leader Xi Jinping.
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Loyal to Xi
Li has tried to focus on growth and liberalization of China’s economy. He wanted China to remain attractive to foreign investors and companies. He also wanted Chinese private entrepreneurs to remain a key driver of China’s economic growth. He failed to do so: Xi Jinping’s zero-covid policy was more important than economic growth for three years, and ideology dominated over pragmatism.
It is wry that Li was ultimately right in his assessment that China would not be able to afford an overly strict zero-covid policy in the long run. But he won’t be able to get that right now. Xi never admitted that his policies were disastrous for the economy. He still calls the Chinese approach to corona superior and absolutely correct.
Even the term zero-covid policy was completely erased from Li’s speech this Sunday, perhaps in the hope that the memory of it will soon fade from public memory. Li said the coronavirus pandemic and other domestic and international factors have hit China’s economy “much more than we expected.”
Despite differences of opinion, Li has always remained loyal to Xi. That is striking, because Li himself could have become the Supreme Leader of the CPC and President of China in 2012. In the end, support in the top of the Party for Xi Jinping turned out to be slightly greater.
‘Catch-up growth’
Li, who as prime minister is mainly responsible for the country’s economic policy, said on Sunday that China aims for growth of around 5 percent for 2023. That is less than the 5.5 percent of 2022. Then growth eventually amounted to only 3 percent. Unprecedented, because the predicted growth is almost always actually achieved.
According to many analysts, a growth of 5 percent is certainly achievable this year: the zero-covid policy has been lifted, and it is expected that the “catch-up growth” in 2023 may actually be even higher. But that will not save China in the long run: the challenge is to maintain higher growth for the longer term.
Defense spending will increase by 7.2 percent this year. At a press conference ahead of the National People’s Congress, Congress spokesman Wang Chao defended an increase as “appropriate and reasonable” and necessary to deal with China’s complex security threats.
Defense spending is increasingly out of step with economic growth. In 2022 they officially rose by 7.1 percent, in 2021 by 6.8 percent and in 2020 by 6.6 percent. But according to Wang, no one should see a threat in that. “On the contrary, it [leger] will only be a positive force for safeguarding regional stability and world peace,” said Wang.
On Taiwan, Li said, among other things, that China must take “decisive measures” to counter the so-called “independence of Taiwan” and to promote reunification. With that he said little news.
Li also defended excluding pro-democracy forces from participating in Hong Kong parliamentary elections. According to Li, the principle that “patriotic forces govern Hong Kong” has been firmly adhered to, and that is a good thing, Li thinks.
Pre-made appointments
The People’s Congress, which lasts until March 13, is also formally about a whole series of appointments of ministers, heads of departments, the prime minister and the president. Those appointments have already been made by the Communist Party of China, including during the 20th Party Congress in October last year. They still need to be ratified by the People’s Congress, China’s official parliament. Not all appointments have been announced yet.
In addition, an amendment to the constitution is on the agenda, plus the adoption of a whole series of other laws. A constitutional amendment is not unique: that also happened in 2018. It is expected that the CPC will place the Chinese state organs even more under the guardianship of the CPC. A restructuring of the financial sector is also expected.