The European Commission reaffirms its initial assessment and insists that despite the Budapest reforms, the risk to the European Union budget remains
The week in Brussels appears explosive. It is not the first time that the government led by the Hungarian Viktor Orban threatens to block far-reaching European decisions. In recent years, his challenges have been constant and have become the usual trend in his relations with the European institutions. However, never before have there been so many files on the table at once blocked by Budapest. “It is a type of blackmail diplomacy that we have never seen before & rdquor ;, criticize European diplomatic sources about the veto of the macro-financial assistance package of 18,000 million for Ukraine, which the Twenty-seven have managed to straighten out in extremis this Saturday although without the help of Budapest, the agreement on the minimum corporate tax of 15% agreed within the framework of the OECD, the ninth package of sanctions against Russia or the recharging of the EU Fund for Peace with which to continue financing the purchase of armament to kyiv.
All these questions require unanimous decisions of the Twenty-seven, who are still in the air because Orbán has decided to link his approval with the proposal from Brussels to freeze the structural funds assigned to his country due to the drift of the rule of law. “It is what it is and we have to deal with it & rdquor ;, admit the same sources tired of a pulse that could blow up this week. On Thursday, the 27 heads of state and government meet in Brussels for the traditional summit at the end of the year, and they all want to see the situation resolved before the meeting. Otherwise, everything could end up contaminating a European Council which is already expected to be long. “I don’t know if Hungary will want to muddy or solve. The rest of the governments obviously want to solve things & rdquor ;, other diplomatic sources point out about the spirit with which they are facing the week.
The first sign of Budapest’s willingness to remove possible obstacles will be seen this Monday at the EU foreign ministers meeting with the ninth package of sanctions against Russia, proposed this week by the European Commission, and the decision to fill the European Fund for Peace, endowed with 5,500 million, with which they finance the purchase of arms from Ukraine. The uncertainty regarding the path that the Orbán government will take, isolated and without any ally in this field, is total and the feeling that it is blackmailing the rest of the club and that it is taking European politics hostage to its interests continues to prevail.
Brussels reaffirms
After weeks of talks, Brussels decided at the end of November to propose the blocking of a third of the cohesion funds (about 7,500 million euros) allocated to Hungary until it complies with the reforms promised under the conditionality mechanism of the state of law. At the same time, he proposed freezing the 5,800 million from the recovery plan -the only one pending approval- until he executes the promised reforms, including guaranteeing the judicial independence. The proposal, which must be adopted by a qualified majority, was presented to the EU finance and economy ministers (Ecofin) last Tuesday.
The Twenty-seven decided to postpone the decision and request a new analysis from Brussels on the alleged progress made by Budapest since last November 19 to reassess the possible punishment. The analysis, sent this Friday by the European Commission to the 27 EU ambassadors, reaffirms its initial assessment: “despite the measures adopted by Hungary, the general risk to the EU budget remains unchanged & rdquor; that is, the proposal to freeze 7,500 million remains intact.
deadlines to the limit
Time, in any case, is running against Hungary. If the Twenty-seven can’t make up their minds before December 19 the file will end up in the trash and Hungary without sanction, a possibility that the diplomatic sources consulted rule out because they consider that the conditionality mechanism would be mortally wounded. Another deadline is the December 31. For that day, Hungary needs to see its recovery plan approved, for which it will receive 5,800 million, since otherwise it will lose 70% of the allocated funds, about 4,600 million. Something that European sources rule out, although the disbursement of this money is not guaranteed and will also be conditioned on compliance with reforms related to the rule of law.