Now that Russia has launched the attack against Ukraine, it is sounding in Europe that Vladimir Putin is acting irrationally, that this kind of land grab has no place in the 21st century and that it is doomed to failure. But if one player has acted irrationally in recent decades, it is Europe. By now portraying President Putin as a relic of another era, we are closing our eyes to the reality that more dire confrontations lie ahead.
Power politics is rarely separated from emotion and very often fluctuates between suspicion and grandiosity. In Russia, the imperial penchant for greatness and a sphere of influence of its own has never completely disappeared. The vision to take back Ukraine has been around since the 1990s and has been heightened by decades of tension with the West. With revenues from the energy sector, Europe’s weak stance and US focus shifting to the Far East, President Putin is now smelling his chance to act on that vision. The motives are partly emotional, but the decision to attack Ukraine rests partly on a rational assessment of costs and benefits, advantages and limitations.
Russia is not the only country with such an attitude. For years, China has been strengthening control over disputed areas: the South China Sea, on the border with India, vis-à-vis Taiwan, and so on. Like Russia, China wants a buffer zone to keep rivals at bay and become a superpower again. In a country where the nationalist fire is permanently stoked, the restoration of the motherland is a matter of honour. You can bet that Beijing is watching closely as Russia tries to outwit the urbanized areas of Ukraine. Those lessons could come in handy later in Taiwan.
Military Harassment
There are dozens of conflicts across borders and over land in the world. Despite expanding trade and despite international arbitration, these are still often fought over by military means. Turkey is trying to expand its so-called blue motherland and is increasing its navy to that end. Israel uses military force to control areas like the Golan Heights. Egypt uses military intimidation to secure water supplies from across the border. Think of Japan and South Korea often risking skirmishes over some uninhabited rocks in the sea.
The wilderness in that regard has never disappeared. Europe especially did not want to see the wilderness. It has come to use its own integration process as a yardstick for world politics in a particularly risky way, confusing its own ideals with reality. However, the warning signs were visible long ago. We were well aware that diplomatic dialogues with Russia, China and other countries had little or no influence on their complaints, that despite intense economic cooperation Beijing and Moscow continued to arm their armies to the teeth and strengthen their position in and around disputed territory.
We knew that the wilderness was once again advancing on the fringes of the European project, but our leaders’ priority was above all not to spoil the fun in this lazy country. And so we continued to import Russian oil and gas, despite the annexation of Crimea and the downing of flight MH17. And so we continue to partially neutralize our own sanctions today by buying oil and gas from Russia. After all, there is no alternative, it sounds. We have fed the Russian bear for twenty years and are now disappointed that we can no longer control him. President Putin has taken a risk with his invasion, but we have taken a much greater risk with our half-hearted policies of the past decades.
Fertile land
And new crises will follow. In Africa, albeit on a small scale, there will be hard fighting for fertile land and water. South Asia is a vast minefield of border and water conflicts. But the big hot spot remains East Asia, where China is preparing everything to push America away and annex Taiwan. And just as we fed the Russian bear concentrate, we also continue to make the Chinese strong through unbalanced trade. After all, the European consumption machine must not be allowed to sputter. Can we ‘strongly condemn’ another invasion in a few years’ time?
Our sanctions and convictions are just a smokescreen that our leaders put up to cover up our own opportunistic behavior. The policies of the current elite have been making Europe weaker and competitors stronger for years. It gives power to countries that you know will use that power against us sooner or later. As a result, we contribute to our own demise and that is only irrational behaviour: slow geopolitical self-destruction.
Jonathan Holslag is author of ‘From wall to wall: World politics since 1989’.