“Que no, que no, que no, que no” is the refrain of a song by a Galician pop band called Deluxe, created by Xoel López, and the message that the president of the Center for Sociological Research, José Félix Tezanos, seems to tell him. to all Spanish demographic companies every time a survey is published. They all predict a change in the electoral paradigm, in which the right would emerge triumphant. minus the CIS.
In the current battle waged by companies dedicated to electoral polling, the refrain, or the message, has become a challenge. The latest episode of the war has been broadcast this week in the media and on social networks as a result of the advance results of the elections in Castilla y León that will be held on February 13.
All the entities that carry out surveys, published in the end by certain means, give victory to PP from Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, whom they leave a foot short of the absolute majority. They also place to vox on a steep rise ya cs at the edge of the abyss. The balance of forces on the right is changing axis because the liberals are evaporating and those of Santiago Abascal are only growing between peculiar costumes and an “anti-everything” rhetoric. This is what GAD3, Metroscopia and others indicate.
There are 18 days left for the voters of Castilla y León to vote and 19 for Tezanos to say “I’m not a fortune teller” for making the worst estimate in the history of the CIS in CyL.
Tip: save this estimate. pic.twitter.com/pGrNYszk02– Narciso Michavila (@nmichavila) January 26, 2022
But the CIS does not. The study, known this week, granted to PSOE victory with 30.8 percent of the votes and a number of seats in the Cortes of Castilla y León that would be between 25 and 34, while the PP was second with between 27 and 32 attorneys. Cs does not disappear in the poll, although he is injured, and Vox is not at work to shoot rockets; he improves, but without going over. United We Can give a slight improvement and about 3-5 prosecutors… In short, for the CIS, no euphoria in the popular ranks. Those of Pablo Casado, however, even respond with ridicule. The entity, publicly owned, attached to the Ministry of the Presidency, lives in controversy.
Against the “myths of the right”
The progress of results on Castile and Leon it was controversial not only because of the results of the “kitchen” of the vote estimate, but because the former vice president paul churches released the poll numbers before it was released. She deleted the text later, but suspicion ran through the Twitter profiles of the right-wing political class. The PP requested the resignation of Tezanos, on which a permanent suspicion weighs.
The electoral environment that has been installed survey after survey (published in some media on a monthly and even bi-weekly basis) shows the following storywhich is the one that manages the PP, according to sources of this formation. The popular will win the elections, Pablo Casado will be president with the support of Vox in the investiture, Citizens will disappear, the PSOE stagnates and the profit margin of Pedro Sanchez has simply withered.
The CIS, however, denies every extreme, and neither the journalists nor the citizens know what to expect (that is, in the event that there are citizens pending the electoral demoscopy). One argument in favor of the body chaired by Tezanos is that the samples of his interviews are much broader. Barometers often exceed 3,000. The progress of the elections in Castilla y León exceeded 7,000. With more data in the shaker, there should be more chances of success, but experts do not see it that way. They even mock, according to El Periódico de España.
The president of the GAD3 company, Narciso Michavila, who usually does work and “tracking” for the Popular Party and institutions presided over by popular, wrote these words on his Twitter profile the same day that the Castilla y León survey of his colleague, the president of the CIS, came out: “There are missing 18 days for the voters of Castilla y León to vote and 19 for Tezanos to say “I’m not a fortune teller” for making the worst estimate in the history of the CIS in CyL. Advice: keep this estimate.” And he attached the chart with the estimate.
Michavila, who has built prestige in recent years in the wake of the fever for electoral polls that has been unleashed in the media, has a tweet pinned to his profile that recalls the pre-electoral work that the CIS did before the elections of the Community of Madrid on May 4, 2021, what was a disaster of Tezanos because it didn’t even come close to what happened at the polls. he put to the three leftist forces at a level similar to the sum of PP and Voxwhich fed an expectation of equality that the elections crumbled.
But let’s go back to what was said before: the Popular Party laboratory on Génova Street has been noticing a series of electoral tendencies that the CIS is dismantling one by one. Is Tezanos right? The polls will tell.
First takedown: PP wins
The January barometer would give victory to the PSOE with 28.5 percent of the ballots and the PP would be seven points behind. This is how the Sociological Research Center begins the year, but in reality this is the trend it has sustained since the last general elections. As the barometers are now monthly, the center chaired by the sociologist, an undisguised socialist militant, has generated the feeling that the Socialist Party is doing well, and it may be so. In Catalonia the PSC won, but in Madrid Ángel Gabilondo fell flat on his face with a meager result, even worse than that of Más Madrid.
Who is Pablo Iglesias to have the data from a CIS survey before it is published? Is the government going to investigate? It is very serious.
This handling of information is corruption. We demand explanations from the Executive and the immediate resignation of Tezanos. https://t.co/lLly18g0yw
– Edmundo Bal (@BalEdmundo) January 26, 2022
The CIS has always put Pedro Sánchez’s party first. It is true that as a result of May 4 he reduced his pull, which fell from 28 percent, but since September, except for a setback in November, he has recovered. Right now, always according to the CIS, he would improve the numbers of the last general elections of November 2019, when he reached 28.3 percent of the votes.
As if that were not enough, the PSOE always wins in ‘more sympathy vote’: it took the PP seven points in this month’s survey.
Second dismount: Sánchez does not shoot
Having seen the polls of the last year, there is not a single barometer in which Pablo Casado has improved the percentages of confidence that Sánchez produces in those surveyed by the CIS. This January, the Prime Minister inspired a lot or a lot of confidence in 27.4% of those interviewed; the leader of the PP, to 9.6. In addition, the socialist president motivated little or none at 69.3 percent and the popular leader, at 87.1.
When the CIS asks those surveyed who they prefer as president, lThe answer always makes Sánchez better. In January, 20.5 percent said so, above the 10.9 that cited Casado or the 15.7 that mentioned the Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz.
Third: young people prefer the right
The PP, in the works of the CIS, almost never comes out well. In the last barometerrespondents aged 18 to 24, and even from 25 to 34, opt for the Socialist Party and its leader. They trust the president more, although without fuss, and prefer him to head the government, as 21.5% say so; Married gets an 18.1. The margin narrows in the next age range, but not between the leader of the PSOE and the leader of the PP, but between the former and Yolanda Díaz. 15.5% of those surveyed between 25 and 34 years old want her as presidentvery close to those who bet on Sánchez, who represent 17.2.
Let’s go to the vote + sympathy parameter. Young people between 18 and 24 years old place the PSOE in first place (19.6), then the PP (15.6), then United We Can (18.8) and then Vox (8.3). They add more socialists and “purple” in this age group, which would indicate that the youth continues to move along a left-wing axis.
Fourth: the rural world looks more to PP and Vox
Well neither, according to the CIS. Sánchez, in this month’s barometer, comes out better than Casado in municipalities with less than 2,000 inhabitants and in which his demography reaches up to 10,000. But, in addition, in the less populated localities, those of the rural area, the emptied Spain, respondents choose the president as a favorite to remain in office, because that is what 21 percent indicates. Married is mentioned an 11.7. Even Diaz has more strength here (15.4). The same scale is repeated in municipalities with between 2,000 and 10,000 inhabitants.
The PSOE also monopolizes the congratulations of the sector “vote+sympathy”. It obtains in these types of populations 25.7 and 21.7 percent, ahead of the PP (17.1 and 12.9), United We Can (10.1 and 10.9) and Vox (8, 7 and 9.8).
And in Castile and León?
The same inertia and similar tendencies. The CIS indeed, in the study carried out between January 7 and 22, gives victory to the PSOE and second place to the PP. says more things.
He says that young Castilian-Leonese from 18 to 24 years old opt for the socialists when the Tezanos center asks them which party are you going to vote for on February 13. It is a spontaneous response. 18.3 is pronounced like this. In the citizenship of 25 to 34 years, 12.6 think the same, compared to 10.7 that opts for the PP of Mañueco. Now, an important fact: in this age group Vox bends Podemos and approaches the popular ones. 10% say they will vote for this formation.
The CIS prior to the 2019 regional elections. The PSOE gave it a winner with 30-31. He took 35. The PP gave him 28-29. He got 28. VOX gave him 0-1. He got 1. Cs gave him 10-13. He got 12. He gave Podemos 8 and got 2. The only mistake was that he gave less to the PSOE and more to Podemos than what they got. pic.twitter.com/oyVnoF57Ed
– Oscar Puente (@oscar_puente_) January 26, 2022
In the rural area of Castilla y León, the CIS does put Vox on the rise and it does (importantly) place the PP better than the PSOE. In municipalities with less than 2,000 inhabitants, Mañueco beats Luis Tudanca, the socialist candidate. And Vox is always better than Podemos.