Within six weeks there are municipal elections (and regional elections in part of Spain). And in December, generals. we are already in the most aggressive phase of politics. After a legislature of great tension and polarization, the parties now only reason in an electoral key. And two issues this week, the final decision of Ferrovial to move its headquarters to Amsterdam and the agreement between the Government (PSOE, Yolanda and Podemos) and ERC and Bildu on the housing law, indicate that Pedro Sánchez -with a better economic situation than expected – subordinates economic orthodoxy to winning the elections.
Ferrovial’s decision to jump from Madrid to the Netherlands to be listed on Wall Street, since it is in North America where it already has most of its business and needs more credit and capital, it makes sense. But it is complicated. That a “national champion”, as they say in France, emigrate abroad is always delicate. And the president of Ferrovial, Rafael del Pino Calvo-Sotelo, owner of 20% of the capital, He made a serious political mistake when he made it public without first having ‘chewed’ it with the Government. In addition, the statement questioned legal security in Spain. Even if it were true, It was not opportune to say it because it was not the main reason, even less so as it is part of the catchphrases of some business and right-wing circles against the government.
Sánchez’s initial rejection is therefore understandable, because damaged the Executive and could harm Spain, It attracts a lot of international investment. But, even if you dislike it, you can’t spit on reality. Spain is Europe and Ferrovial -most of its shareholders are today international funds who logically want to maximize profit – can settle in another single market country if it suits them. Del Pino, a man with a difficult character, was wrong, but the Government has surpassed him by keeping the battle to the end. For stubbornness?
Sánchez believes that in the electorate -even in Catalonia- attack del Pino for little patriot it has more “hook & rdquor; that accept the interests of a multinational Spaniard who has sinned in haughtiness. Ferrovial will be on Wall Street, but – Sánchez thinks – to regret the “capitalism that does not pitch in & rdquor; will have a political prize. Economic orthodoxy yes -that’s what Nadia Calviño is for-, but not in an election year if it harms the candidate Sánchez.
Something similar, but more serious, it happens with the housing law, to which, just as Podemos wanted – and it has even gotten worse -, Nadia Calviño and the PSOE have opposed the entire legislature. Inflation of 8% arrived and to protect the tenants -and save the clash with the partners- The Government limited the rent increase to 2% in 2022. Good for one year. But now there are elections, and Sánchez knows that many citizens believe that the rents are too high and they want the protection of the state against which the infantilism of the left labels “vulture funds & rdquor ;.
He also believes that to win you must close ranks with your partners -To be coherent?- doing -yes- that Yolanda Díaz, more presentable, engulfs the excited Podemos in a unitary mass. That’s why he has given in again and it has given the green light to a law that will keep 2% this year, that in 2024 it will rise to 3% and then never-never increase rents like the CPI. In addition, they put more limitations in stressed areas, a very complicated reality.
It is true that in Spain rent is expensive and scarce. The State should have made more public housing – or subsidized – for rent. But if it has failed, the eternal remedy cannot be that the owners (far from all are “vultures & rdquor;) They cannot even have the profitability of the CPI and also bear the maintenance costs. And defaults and conflicts.
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It’s elementary. There will be fewer flats for rent because the owners will sell them and future investors will invest in other businesses or in another country. If the law comes out, there will be less rental offer and the problem will only get worse. But the elections are tomorrow.
And Sánchez believes -he is not the only one- that the key is to be there tomorrow (2024) so that the conflicts of the day after tomorrow -fewer flats for rent- No ordinary Feijóo has to face them. OK?