‘Why is Europe letting us die slowly’, a Ukrainian marine at the front asks in a report in this newspaper on Saturday. Nearly five months of war, tens of thousands of deaths, and countless billions in destroyed infrastructure and no way out or decision in sight. It is now clear that Western support – in the form of sanctions, weapons and money – is a pure necessity for Ukraine’s self-defense. But the desire to give Ukraine maximum support has been tempered from the start by fears of further escalation if Russia feels “humiliated” on the battlefield.
Western support is therefore the result of a complex addition. An Achilles’ heel is the (permanent) involvement of Western European countries. The Poles and Balts and other neighbors are very involved, followed by the US and the UK – Washington provides the most weapons so far. Least involved are the large Western European countries in which France ascribes a mediating role and Germany seems to be partially paralyzed politically by the unexpected European war.
Severe sanctions have been announced, but Europe has proved too dependent on Russian gas to bite the bullet. Meanwhile, leaders are grappling with the economic backlash. President Biden had to take the begging bowl to the Saudi crown prince. Europe is no longer discussing whether a gas boycott can stop Russia, but how it will survive the winter when Putin turns off the gas himself.
Large numbers of nuclear weapons
The arms shipments now contain more heavy equipment, but not nearly enough for Ukraine to free itself from the Russian invasion army. Washington has put the brakes on, including the delivery of modern fighter aircraft and tanks. Military experts such as François Heisbourg pointed out early on that the Soviets in the Cold War went much further in supporting, for example, North Korea and Vietnam without bringing the world powers into direct confrontation. The reason: large numbers of nuclear weapons on both sides, which still preclude direct military conflict.
German expert Claudia Major of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik says in The New York Times that with the current war of attrition in Eastern Ukraine ‘we in Western Europe have become more optimistic that the war will not come to Germany, but will stay in Ukraine’. The countries close to Ukraine have given away their supplies, but ‘we, Germany and France, who can do more, are reluctant’.
Authoritative military experts question that Western self-restraint, which appears to be partly a result of Russian intimidation. How much the presence or absence of Western weapons can make a difference on the battlefield has become painfully clear this summer. With great difficulty Russia managed to make some progress by bombing the territory to be conquered. A bloody tactic, against which Ukrainian front soldiers felt defenseless without sufficient artillery.
Supply ‘on wheels’
Recently, the introduction of Himars, a modern American long-range missile system, has had an immediate impact. Kyiv claims to have shut down as many as 30 ammunition depots and command posts in Russian-occupied territory in recent weeks. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia must now supply supplies “on wheels” rather than from weapons depots and storage depots close to the front. If true, the Russians have a serious logistical problem that could limit the intensity of their artillery fire.
But even some Himars systems are not a silver bullet that solves all Ukrainian problems. The war front in Ukraine is vast, and the numbers of artillery and armored vehicles delivered so far have not had enough impact. Russian military weakness is still visible, but the great preponderance in artillery and ‘dumb bombs’ still allows new cities to be reduced to ashes.
There is also cause for concern about the wide-ranging consequences of a war going wrong for Ukraine. Speaking of a “turning point” similar to the end of the Cold War, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in London this weekend that the war “shows we are at the end of Western political and economic dominance”. Against the backdrop of relative Western decline is the rise of China, which prioritizes its authoritarian partnership with Russia over the inviolability of borders.
Western moral claims
The outcome of the war in Ukraine is crucial for the future design of a world with different ‘poles’. Is the West still holding up its multilateral order of rules? Many countries outside Europe are on the fence. They are not in a camp, skeptical of Western moral claims and waiting to see how this ends.
But on the battlefields of Ukraine, the question of how far the West wants to go is very concrete. “If Ukraine’s partners react faster and more vigorously,” says German CDU politician Nico Lange, “they can help Ukraine gain the upper hand.” Faced with this brutal war of aggression, there are few options for the West but to remain united. But what that means in practice and on the battlefield, after five months of roaring Russian guns, still remains unclear and uncertain.