“Thank God,” thought NSC member Charlotte Goulmy (54) from Deventer when Pieter Omtzigt’s party left the formation talks with PVV, VVD and BBB last week. And: “That could have been done two months ago.” Her fellow party member Annemiek de Groot (52) from Valthermond thought the opposite. She was disappointed when she received the member email from NSC in which Omtzigt stated that the formation round for his party had ended. “I am extremely disappointed. You shouldn’t run away when things get difficult, that’s when you should stay put.”
Goulmy thought it was “not appropriate” for Omtzigt to participate in the discussions with the PVV at all. She suspects that he “had no choice” because of the election results and continued to show up for eight weeks “out of politeness”. She calls it “courageous” that he stopped the formation. For De Groot, she thought it was appropriate for Omtzigt to “take responsibility”. She herself also has “nothing” with Wilders and “difficulty” with his anti-Islam positions. “But I do think: give it a chance, he has won many seats. Do justice to what a large part of the voters want.”
These are two opposing voices that can be heard more in the NSC supporters and that Pieter Omtzigt must bring together in a members meeting this Friday. In a room in Zwolle, and next week in Breukelen, a limited number of one hundred and fifty members can discuss each time with party leader and MP Eddy van Hijum, who was co-negotiator at the formation table in recent weeks. The discussion rounds are not intended to obtain a mandate from the members, but rather to engage in “conversation” with them. Both meetings were immediately full. It is clear to the party that their members are concerned, hundreds of emails have been received in recent days from members and voters. Some are angry because NSC did not want to continue talking to PVV, VVD and BBB, while others welcome that decision.
‘Split constituency’
Peter Kanne, researcher at Ipsos I&O, also sees this division. After Pieter Omtzigt announced last Tuesday that he would stop the formation talks, the research agency questioned voters about that decision, among other things. “The NSC support base is split,” says Kanne. “Thirty percent of NSC voters say they would like to govern with the PVV, forty percent absolutely do not want that.” The share of NSC voters who want to form a cabinet with a left-wing party is thirty percent.
Immediately after the elections it became apparent that NSC had managed to attract voters from both left-wing and right-wing parties. And views on what kind of party NSC is and where it is located in the political spectrum also differ. From conversations that NRC Since the party’s founding in August, NSC voters and members have been talking to NSC voters and members. Vice-versa for self-identified left-wing voters and members. “This means that with every move the party makes, to the left or to the right, some voters will raise their eyebrows,” says Kanne.
This is visible after last week: about half of the NSC voters say they have dropped out, and a third of them have switched to the PVV.
Lower rating
In the Ipsos I&O research, Kanne sees that the decision to leave the formation and its aftermath also has consequences for Omtzigt’s popularity. Before the House of Representatives elections on November 22, he says, “Omtzigt was described as a savior, he could do no wrong. Everything slipped away from him.” Did Omtzigt hesitate? Then voters saw that as ‘he thinks carefully’. Did Omtzigt give long, woolly answers? Kanne: “Then voters did not always understand what he meant, but they did think he was telling the truth.”
That’s different now. Voters accuse Omtzigt of “indecisiveness, not keeping promises and playing games,” the study states. Annemiek de Groot, herself a politician as faction leader of the local party Leefbaar Borger-Odoorn, sees it this way: “Omtzigt radiated calm and intelligence, a nice combination that we desperately need. And then he leaves at the first disappointment at the table.”
Voters have come to rate Omtzigt lower. In August, Omtzigt was rewarded with an average of 7.6, which has now dropped to 5.5. Just a passing grade. This drop is significant and remarkable, but Kanne emphasizes that it is a snapshot. When the dust settles and the formation starts again, views about Omtzigt may change again.
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The position in which NSC now finds itself – constantly on the defensive and not assured of popularity – is new for the party. It has been known for some time that there are different views in the House of Representatives about cooperation with the PVV. This was not fought out in public but discussed in the faction chamber. In recent days, although always anonymous and in the background, criticism of Omtzigt’s actions has been heard for the first time. He might have acted too emotionally. The fact that he left the talks at the last minute while the formation round was coming to an end anyway – NSC left in the last week before the deadline of then informant Ronald Plasterk – would have drawn unnecessary attention to the party. It has been called “damaging” and “unnecessary.”
It will become clear on Friday whether his members also feel the same way. Charlotte Goulmy has registered for the meeting in Zwolle. She hopes, she says, to find out whether the image she has of NSC is correct. “I always thought that Omtzigt was neatly in the middle, a little left and a little right. I want to know if I was wrong about him. Whether he is indeed much more right-wing than I had estimated him to be.” She hopes to hear that NSC will not participate in a cabinet with the PVV – not even as a permanent supporter.
De Groot hopes for a majority cabinet with PVV, VVD, BBB and NSC – and not a tolerance construction or an extra-parliamentary cabinet. That, she says, would be “weak.”