Do the Danish corona figures have a predictive value for the Netherlands? After an unprecedented peak in omikron infections, the good news is coming from the hospitals, where it remains relatively quiet. The threat comes from a different angle this time.
“We are not celebrating too early, but at the moment we are cautiously optimistic,” says Kasper Karmark Iversen. The cardiologist is an emergency physician at the hospital of Herlev and Gentofte. The Copenhagen suburb has been in the top three of Danish sources of infection for weeks. But contrary to fears, this does not (yet) lead to peak pressures in the hospital.
The insight that the omikron variant is less sickening is reflected in the bed occupancy. ‘It stabilises,’ says the doctor. There are currently 40 patients with covid-19 in his hospital. “That’s half of last winter.” Across Denmark, 777 patients with covid were admitted on Monday, a year ago the peak was 920. The number of corona patients on IC (74 in all of Denmark) is lagging even further. ‘A lack of capacity is not an acute concern at the moment.’
That while two weeks ago, shortly after Christmas, there were more than 41 thousand infections in a population of 6 million inhabitants. Multiplying that number by three yields a shocking number of 120,000 infections on a daily basis for the Netherlands (18 million inhabitants). That calculation is not entirely valid, because Denmark sometimes tests as much in one day as the Netherlands does in a week. Still, the numbers are staggering.
Denmark is the foreland
The Scandinavian country is surfing ahead of the omikron wave. Perhaps partly because, unlike in the Netherlands, there was no lockdown (and still does not apply). But also because the Danish authorities excellently monitor the virus in all its variants with the extensive testing machinery. That is why – and because of the similarities in culture, climate, demography and health care system – Dutch epidemiologists have repeatedly labeled Denmark as our foreland.
So what does the Danish experience with omikron teach us about what to expect? The good news comes from the hospitals, such as the one in Herlev. The fact that occupation is lagging behind in the IC, in particular, also means that less other care needs to be postponed, says doctor Karmark Iversen.
It may also explain why the corona news in Denmark is less alarmist in tone and predominant in scope. On the website of politics you will not find a live blog or separate corona news section. quality newspaper Berlingske message about the massive purchase of boats, because the Danes do not want to be dependent on foreign entry and quarantine rules for their holidays.
Staff loss
Yet there is unrest behind the facade of imperturbability. The threat is likely to come from a different angle during this wave. That the omikron variant is milder may be good news, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen wrote in her New Year’s message on Facebook last week. But the highly contagious nature of omikron and too many infections at the same time could shut down business and society, she warned. ‘Then there won’t be enough people to run trains, take care of children, the elderly and the sick, and keep production going.’
A similar quarantine regime applies in Denmark as in the Netherlands. This can lead to half tribes being left at home because of an infection or close contact with an infected person. The first signs of this effect come from the childcare sector. Last week, 14 percent of the pedagogical staff were absent. In very exceptional cases, crèches have already received permission from the Ministry of Children and Education to limit opening hours, in order to prevent occupation problems.
At the hospital in Herlev, staff loss is also the main concern. About 10 percent of his colleagues in the emergency room are currently absent, estimates doctor Karmark Iversen. ‘Healthcare is not yet an issue, but it increases the pressure on staff to work extra shifts. While everyone is already tired.’
A hopeful sign is that the number of infections appears to be stabilizing in recent days, at a level of about 20 thousand per day. ‘Still large numbers, but the growth has stopped. That is a signal that we have some control over the epidemic,” mathematician epidemiologist Viggo Andreasen of the University of Roskilde told Ritzau news agency this weekend.
Schools open again
But last Wednesday the schools in Denmark reopened – another reason why Denmark will be watched with great interest from the Dutch OMT and the cabinet. “We take into account that this will increase the infections again,” says doctor Karmark Iversen. The director of the Danish health service, Helene Probst, already called it ‘inevitable’ that the number of infections will increase again. For the Danish government – Prime Minister Frederiksen in the lead – it is an extra reason to call on parents to have their children vaccinated.
This week it will become clear how much Danish society is affected when starting up after the Christmas holidays. Then there is hope, expressed last week by Tyra Grove Krause, head of the infectious disease prevention department at the Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the Danish National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Denmark still has to brace itself, she said on national TV, pointing to the omikrone peak expected at the end of this month. “I think we’ll be stuck with covid-19 for another two months, but I hope that when the infections go down, we can get our normal lives back.”
She used the long unused word group immunity. Omikron as a blessing in disguise? Mass infection and vaccination will better protect the Danish population against possible new variants, Grove Krause said. ‘Once the omikron wave has rolled out, we’ll live in a nicer place than before.’