Daniel Scioli says that he did not have it in mind. That he did not talk about it the last time he met with Cristina Kirchner, in December of last year. That it was not something that was on his mind when Alberto Fernández asked him to resign as Minister of Production, a position in which he was barely 49 days in 2022. His version of events is the style that he always liked, without so many complications : this summer he went for a walk in Mar del Plata, in his already historic “Bristol test”. As he was returning from the beach, he was intercepted by three anonymous young men, who were coming out of a bar, and begged him to present himself as a candidate. And he swears that this idea was installed in his mind only then, and that now it has grown to become the reason that keeps him awake at night, that has him “more convinced than ever” that he is going to be the next President.
It is more than likely that the official account is not strictly true. But it matters little. The interesting thing is that in the presidential candidacy of the former motorboat and Victoria Tolosa Paz, who is running for the Buenos Aires governorship, it works like a Borgian Aleph. Since the launch of this formula, all the complexities of today’s Peronism can be observed: the slow decline of the figure of Cristina, the lack of weight of her own and of candidates from La Cámpora, the political ostracism of the President, the absence of consensus generated by the figure of Sergio Massa, who carries the weight of the economic crisis on his back, the constant push and pull that was the Frente de Todos government, and the list could go on. And from that crossroads something was born that, Scioli swears, he himself did not expect: the chances he has of beating, for example, “Wado” De Pedro in an internal one. It is the last revenge of the man of faith and hope.
Last dance. “My name is not Daniel Project.” Scioli said that phrase to CFK in the middle of the 2015 campaign, when Kirchnerism insisted that the “project” had to be voted for and not the then governor. The anecdote, which both the motorboat rider and the vice president usually tell to explain (each from their point of view) the defeat in those elections, illustrates the differences that opened up over the years between the different factions of Peronism. And it is “the wounded” that Scioli and Tolosa Paz aim to lift with their ambulance to win in the internship, the same thing that Menem did with Cafiero in 1989.
The team that pushes these candidacies is a faithful proof. Behind the campaign are Aníbal Fernández, the eviteros Emilio Pérsico and Fernando “Chino” Navarro, the foreign minister Santiago Cafiero, the former secretary of the Media -and husband of Tolosa Paz- Enrique Albistur and the historic shipowner of Scioli Armando Pérez, among others. They are all united by a deep distance from La Cámpora, to put it elegantly. The heart of this adventure is – in addition to the absence of CFK on the list and the lack of K candidates at his height – exactly that: a large part of Peronism got tired of having to continue under the tutelage of camporismo, a reality that It’s been almost fifteen years now and that led to the fact that today the Scioli space holds talks with Florencio Randazzo or Guillermo Moreno.
That is why Scioli repeats, almost daily, that he “does not think” about getting off, and even suspended his usual visit to Italy, in the middle of the year, to treat the ailments caused by the arm he lost. He believes that he has much better chances than De Pedro in an internal one, although several on his team think that Axel Kicillof will ultimately be the challenger. Either way, “el Pichichi” is already in the area.
Labyrinth. But the cards are not all on the table yet. Although for different reasons, both Máximo Kirchner and Massa are moving heaven and earth to lower the candidacy of the former motorboat and that of Tolosa Paz. And both hide aces up their sleeves.
The Minister of Economy, who has had a long feud with Scioli, ordered all his bishops to take full aim against the “irresponsibility” of the ambassador and to say that he is “fed up” with “playing soldiers.” He maintains the logic that an internal one would leave the FdT candidate with the most votes in third place in the PASO and that, as happened in 2019, it would cause a currency run and even more inflation. That is why he demands one of two ways: either a unit list or he presents his resignation.
It is a bet to the limit, to which the other side responds with sarcasm. “Perfect, let him get off and Scioli is the only candidate.” On this side, everyone believes that the Tigrense wants to be the chosen one and that it is that and not his concern for the economy that explains his latest movements. Those who went on the trip to China swear that Massa almost threw his cell phone on the floor when he saw from there that Tolosa Paz was launching into the Province. A note in passing: although the rushed massista was read as an affront against Scioli, it was really a criticism that also included De Pedro, another who, according to this perspective, “plays little soldiers” wallpapering the streets with his face while the minister searches dollars for the world The first sparks between the Cabinet mates began to appear.
With Máximo the road is, on the other hand, more winding. It is that, paraphrasing Perón, the strategic enemy can become a tactical ally. On the one hand, the camporista is the one who is putting more sticks in the wheel of the challengers: he threatened that each list should bring its own candidates for mayors, councilors and governors -something that, logically, none of the local leaders want- and also with which he would push to raise the floor of the D’Hondt system from 25 to 40% – which would make the losers of the internal stay off the lists unless they reach that minimum. But, on the other hand, both the camper and Tolosa Paz share the same objective: to get Kicillof out of Buenos Aires, one because he prefers to see his ally Martín Insaurralde there and the other because he wants to succeed him. This conjunction of interests led several in Peronism to speculate that there could be some unexpected turnaround before the lists close and that an attractive electoral offer could lead Tolosa to decline his candidacy for something else. Both close to her and Scioli deny it, and in fact, to silence these rumors, they rushed to spread photos together and give interviews in duet mode.
Either way, the mystery is yet to be revealed. In just days, when the lists close, it will be seen if Scioli gets his revenge.
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