President Zelensky is a master of the mixed message. In his speeches, he effortlessly allows the sweet to pass into the sour – and vice versa. He is the father who loves his children dearly, but will not spare them if they neglect their duties in his eyes.
The Dutch politicians also received such a treatment in the House of Representatives on Thursday while they listened obediently. Only Thierry Baudet and Geert Wilders had unsubscribed: Baudet for pseudo-principal reasons, Wilders because he had undergone a positive self-test the day before, which saved him a painful session as a Putin sympathizer.
It may be my pessimistic expectations about the outcome of this war, but I mainly experience such a speech as one big cry for help from a leader who, together with his people, has his back against the wall. Zelensky almost begged for tougher sanctions, more weapons and EU accession. Very loosely translated, he said to ‘Mark’: “Hurry up, acknowledge and accept us!”
But that will not happen for the time being for all kinds of good and less good reasons. Meanwhile, the spine-chilling killing spree in Ukraine continues at a steady pace, seemingly at a somewhat lower level, but it could also be for strategic reasons.
Bret Stephens, columnist for The New York Times, wrote a captivating review under the provocative headline: “But what if Putin didn’t miscalculate?” Imagine, says Stephens, that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine, but that he is mainly concerned with the energy-rich areas in the east and control over the coastline. “He is less interested in the reunification of the Russian-speaking world than in Russia’s energy dominance.”
In that case, Stephens gives Putin a good chance of success. Zelensky would eventually have to accept an unfavorable division of his country because the population left behind has to suffer too much – which is why Putin continues to bomb those defenseless civilians and their (hospital) homes. Moreover, the West will increasingly crave de-escalation, also because of the Russian threat with nuclear weapons.
Within Russia, Putin no longer needs to expect significant opposition: courageous demonstrators are treated as criminals, critical journalists flee the country.
This alternative analysis of Putin’s course of action may be wrong, Stephens admits, “yet, in war, politics and everyday life, it is always wiser to treat your opponent like a cunning fox than an idiot.”
I completely agree with him, albeit with the caveat that a cunning fox can indeed be an idiot.
By the way, Zelensky also has features of a cunning fox, considering how cleverly he plays with public opinion and alternately thanks and pressures the sympathetic foreign politicians. In order to please the Netherlands, he turned the entire national history upside down in a nutshell, although he was clever enough not to remind us of the bloody stains of our colonial past.
Furthermore, he was absolutely right: no routine about ‘Ukraine’. It rhymes, but it sounds bad.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of April 1, 2022