According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), there is still no sign of relaxation in the supply chains at sea, which have been increasingly out of sync since the beginning of the corona pandemic. “The number of shipping containers in traffic jams is increasing again worldwide,” the institute reported on Wednesday. “Currently about 12 percent of all goods shipped worldwide are stuck – last year the figure was only two months higher.”
In China, since the outbreak of the pandemic, ports have repeatedly been closed in whole or in part because port workers were infected with the corona virus. In such cases, ships have to wait for days for loading and unloading or switch to other ports, where traffic jams also form. A similar situation has existed for a long time in front of the major ports in the USA, also because the port logistics cannot keep up with the unloading and onward transport of the boxes.
The Kiel researchers are currently not recognizing any particular effects of the corona lockdown that has been in effect since the end of March in the Chinese port city of Shanghai. “Probably also because the port will continue to be operated there,” says IfW economist Vincent Stamer.
At the IfW, global trade flows are analyzed on the basis of real-time data on shipping traffic. From this, the Kiel researchers obtain very up-to-date data on how world trade is developing.
The IfW economists also use the data to determine, for example, the effectiveness of the sanctions imposed on Russia. “At the three largest ports in Russia, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Novorossiysk, container freight traffic has already collapsed by half,” it says. “Europe’s companies and shipping companies are obviously restricting sea transport. The same is likely to apply to trade via the more important road transport.” Meanwhile, Russia-attacked Ukraine is virtually cut off from international maritime trade. “The country’s most important port, Odessa on the Black Sea, hasn’t been called by a large container ship since the outbreak of war.”