The first five weeks of the 2023 NFL season are history. Several rookie quarterbacks have been allowed to start as starters, but not all of them were convincing. An inventory.
For the sake of clarity, we will limit ourselves to the three first-round picks for this analysis, especially since, apart from Aidan O’Connell (4th round, Raiders) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (5th round, Browns), no quarterback in this year’s draft class has yet made a start or received extensive playing time.
NFL: The top rookie quarterbacks checked after Week 5
Three quarterbacks were drafted in Round 1 and even in the top 4 of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers grabbed Bryce Young from Alabama with the first overall pick. The second pick went to the Houston Texans, who selected CJ Stroud from Ohio State, and at No. 4, the Indianapolis Colts drafted Anthony Richardson from Florida. All three were starters for their teams from the start of the season.
Bryce Young has a tough time with the Panthers
The top pick in the draft, Bryce Young, was considered the most talented quarterback in the draft class. But of all three first-round quarterbacks, he has shown the weakest performances so far. Due to injury, he has only played four games so far and lost all four.
Bryce Young is still waiting for his first NFL win
- Pass rate: 63.9 percent / Yards: 748 / 5 touchdowns / 4 interceptions
- Passer Rating: 77.0 / Total QBR: 28.8 / ANY/A: 3.71 / EPA/Play: -0.146
- Average Intended Air Yards: 5.7 / Completion Percentage above Expectation: 0.5
As expected, Young has had a difficult time with the Panthers so far. The offensive line as a whole has shown manageable performance so far, especially when it comes to pass blocking. According to “PFF” they are currently fifth from last in the NFL, even though “ESPN” lists this unit in 15th place with a pass block win rate of 55 percent.
In particular, the left side of the line with Ickey Ekwonu and guard Chandler Zavala has largely performed below average, which is a bigger problem, especially with a rather short rookie quarterback.
Young has seen 66 pressures in his games so far, over 18 percent of which resulted in sacks (12). That in turn speaks for Young, because there are quarterbacks who are more often victims of the defense. And his pass rate of 63.9 percent at least suggests that he maintained his precision despite the constant pressure.
He makes few mistakes, but rarely takes risks with his passes – his throws are currently the shortest in the league on average, according to “Next Gen Stats”. No one else throws as few passes into tight passing windows (targets one or fewer yards away from the defender) as Young with his 6.9 percent aggressive throws. This also shows a possible lack of trust in his receivers – only Adam Thielen has been able to convince so far.
The main problem with Young at the moment is that there is still no positive trend to be seen. He had a particularly weak first week, after which his performance was average at best, which remained fairly consistent.
Anthony Richardson better than expected as a passer
The fourth pick in the draft, Anthony Richardson, demonstrated his athleticism from the start. In addition, however, he also showed how advanced he is in the passing game and within the pocket. However, he will be out for the time being due to a shoulder injury.
Anthony Richardson is out for the time being
- Pass rate: 59.9 percent / Yards: 577 / 3 touchdowns / 1 interception
- Passer Rating: 87.3 / Total QBR: 43.6 / ANY/A: 6.19 / EPA/Play: 0.057
- Average Intended Air Yards: 7.7 / Completion Percentage above Expectation: -5.8
- 136 rushing yards / 5.4 yards per carry / 4 rushing touchdowns
Richardson scored three rushing touchdowns in his first two games, but missed the Week 3 game with a concussion and had to leave the Week 5 game early with the injured shoulder. Nevertheless, he already had a noticeable impact on the Colts’ game.
His chemistry with wide receiver Michael Pittman can be described as decent, and he also gets good production from slot receiver Josh Downs. And until last weekend he had to do without Jonathan Taylor at his side in the backfield, which didn’t necessarily make the run part of his game any easier, considering that RPOs and read options are even more challenging for defenses with the threat of Taylor should be.
And yet, if you ignore precision, which could not have been expected from Richardson after just one year as a college starter, we are already looking at a quarterback who is aware of his abilities. 14.3 percent of his throws went into narrow passing windows and he already showed his strong arm – his longest completion of the season flew for more than 51 air yards, according to “NGS”.
But the shortcoming in his game is also obvious: his strong run game carries the risk of injuries because he takes more hits than other quarterbacks. The result so far has been a concussion and an injury to the acromioclavicular joint. When he returns from the injury, you may want to reduce his running frequency slightly or encourage him to slide more or run out of bounds.
Record-breaking rookie CJ Stroud leads the field
And then there’s the second overall pick, CJ Stroud. He started shaky behind a ragtag Texans offensive line in Week 1 and was under constant fire. But he didn’t let the five sacks in Baltimore or the six sacks a week later against Indy faze him and continued to improve.
CJ Stroud is currently the best rookie quarterback in the NFL
- Pass rate: 61.3 percent / Yards: 1461 / 7 touchdowns / 0 interceptions
- Passer Rating: 98.4 / Total QBR: 56.4 / ANY/A: 6.94 / EPA/Play: 0.102
- Average Intended Air Yards: 8.4 / Completion Percentage above Expectation: -0.4
With his 1,461 passing yards, Stroud not only leads all rookies this season, he is also third in the NFL behind Kirk Cousins (1,498) and Tua Tagovailoa (1,614). This is remarkable for a rookie and shows how far he has come after a rocky start. He also now holds the NFL record for most pass attempts by a quarterback without an interception to start a career, with 186 passes without an interception.
He didn’t get that record because he was just playing it safe. According to “NGS”, he throws the ninth-deepest passes on average in the league and even places 14.5 percent of them into tight passing windows. His error rate is very low. Although, as mentioned, he had a whopping 44 pressures against him in his first two weeks, according to PFF, Stroud only produced five plays in five games that should have resulted in a turnover. Three of those plays came in the first two games.
Since then, there has been a general improvement in the overall situation. The O-line became a little more stable and Stroud also became more confident. In his most recent three games, he only saw 24 total pressures and didn’t record a single sack. This meant that he was also more willing to intentionally throw away a pass. He didn’t do that at all in week 1 and paid for it…
What also works in Stroud’s favor is the fact that most and best of his throws go in the direction of rookie receiver Tank Dell and especially 2021 third-round pick Nico Collins. Collins in particular took a big step forward during the better course of the season compared to his previous two seasons and developed into a formidable X-receiver. Stroud’s passer rating on passes to Collins is currently an impressive 139.8. And he already has as many touchdowns (3) as he has in the past two years combined.
Based on his performances so far, Stroud is the favorite with the bookmakers in Vegas in the race for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. But he is already the best rookie quarterback.
Marcus Blumberg