Week 12 of the NFL is largely over and the Pittsburgh Steelers appeared relieved after the release of Matt Canada. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions continued a negative trend, while there can only be one opinion when it comes to Aaron Rodgers. The findings of the week.
NFL: Steelers offense freed by Canada
The Steelers began the week by firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. A move that was long overdue, especially according to countless Steelers supporters. And even from an objective perspective, it was hard to explain why Canada was still in charge of this offense until Week 11 of this season.
But how did things go in the first game without him? Successor Eddie Faulkner is said to have planned something revolutionary – more targets for top receiver George Pickens! This plan didn’t really work. He only had five targets for three receptions (58 yards). But quarterback Kenny Pickett was looking for another long-lost playmaker.
We are of course talking about tight end Pat Freiermuth. He was certainly injured for a long time and therefore missed five weeks. But when he was fit, he wasn’t a factor, a focus in this offense. One of the criticisms of Canada was that they rarely tried to throw over the middle. Everything should take place outside the numbers. That should change suddenly against the Bengals. Not only did Pickett frequently throw over the middle, he also looked for Freiermuth.
The tight end had 11 targets for nine catches and 120 yards. In his five games so far this season he has had 14 targets. He then made nine receptions for 60 yards.
Another adjustment was Pickett’s average passing depth. While it was previously 7.5 yards, it now came to 8.3 yards. The result was 0.27 EPA/Play and 9.2 CPOE for 65.3 Total QBR – the second best value this season and the best value since the end of September. The craziest stat in this game, however, is the 421 total yards this offense produced. Canada had not reached this mark once in his time as the Steelers’ OC (since 2021). The Steelers previously went 58 games in a row without a 400-yard game on offense.
The bar wasn’t exactly set yet, but Canada’s offense always easily passed under it in limbo style.
NFL: Lions defense in free fall
The Detroit Lions somewhat surprisingly lost their Thanksgiving home game against the Green Bay Packers 22:29, continuing a worrying trend. Since the monster blow in Baltimore in Week 7 (6:38), this defense has hardly been convincing and is constantly digging holes in its offense that are harder and harder to overcome.
The defense actually got off to a really good start to the season, which could also be expressed in numbers. The Lions were the NFL’s seventh-most efficient defense at -0.102 EPA/Play through the first six weeks of the season. Since week seven, however, things have been going in the other direction. With now 0.106 EPA/play, they have the least efficient defense in the entire league.
Since the Ravens game, they have also allowed the second-highest success rate and hardly have any pass rush to speak of – a quarterback gets an average of more than three seconds to throw and almost every fifth pass results in a big play. Accordingly, the pass rush win rate has slipped to 37 percent (rank 26). What makes matters worse is that the Run Stop Win Rate only ranks 30th.
And the main problem for the Lions may be that it’s not an easy fix. The quality of personnel outside of edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson may simply be lacking. Last year’s rookie alone had 63 pressures – no one else in the squad had more than 30. And we’re not necessarily talking about injury problems here either. Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley and safety CJ Gardner-Johnson are missing two important defensive backs, but otherwise the majority of the starters are fit.
The Lions have now lost to the Seahawks, Ravens and Packers. Two of those teams are currently over .500. The good news for Detroit is that the Saints are now a team that doesn’t have a particularly good offense. Afterwards, however, a difficult phase begins with two games against the closest rival Minnesota as well as duels with the Broncos, Cowboys and a guest game in Chicago, against which they won in week 11 with a lot of luck in the last second.
The lead over Minnesota is currently two games. Given the rest of the program, the first division title since 1993 is far from set in stone.
NFL: Aaron Rodgers should put his feet up
In recent days it has been heard from the New York Jets that they will allow Aaron Rodgers to train again if the doctors give him the green light. And this point is probably very close, because after the Jets’ dismal home performance on Black Friday against the Miami Dolphins (13:34), Rodgers did not jet back to California (sic!) as usual (sic!), but stayed in New Jersey, where he now residing full time again. “He’s in the building,” said head coach Robert Saleh on Saturday.
It was recently rumored that Rodgers might make his miraculous comeback on Christmas Eve against the Washington Commanders. And apparently that is now more likely than ever thought. The question that interests me more in this matter is a completely different one: Why are we still talking about this scenario? Have you ever seen the Jets play? There is absolutely no reason for Rodgers to play again this season.
On Black Friday, the Jets once again impressively demonstrated why it would be negligent to let Rodgers anywhere near the field this season.
The Jets had finally decided to bench Zach Wilson. Tim Boyle played instead and, considering the circumstances, he didn’t do a bad job. Above all, unlike Wilson, he got rid of the ball quite quickly. Boyle averaged just 2.35 seconds to throw – Wilson held the ball an average of 2.92 seconds this season.
However, that didn’t help at all! As a rule, as a normal quarterback you should get rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds so as not to put yourself in too great danger of a sack. The Dolphins managed 18 pressures against Boyle and still managed seven sacks despite the quick and short throws. That’s a pressure to sack rate of 38.9 percent, which is completely insane. Even Wilson, who held the ball forever, came here only to a value of 23.5 percent.
Jets: Another start for Tim Boyle
Boyle will still get at least one more start, according to Saleh. Given the lack of protection for any QBs, that doesn’t matter. However, with a record of 4-7, their playoff chances are noticeably dwindling – according to “ESPN”, their chance is only 0.3 percent. Playoffs are once again almost impossible in New York and, according to Rodgers, a chance of that was the basis for a return this year.
However, based on recent reports, it is suggested that Rodgers wants to return even without a playoff chance. And that shouldn’t be an issue at all. Rodgers turns 40 on December 2nd and has just recovered from a torn Achilles tendon. So how mobile will he be when he actually returns in December? Especially behind this offensive line, which is currently not stopping anyone.
The Jets have to protect their investment here first and foremost. Even with the restructured contract since the trade from Green Bay, Rodgers is entitled to $38 million in guaranteed cash in 2024. If this number is supposed to bear any fruit after all, it can’t really be responsible for this organization to risk anything with Rodgers this year just because he wants to play.
Aside from that, Rodgers’ feelings shouldn’t play a role in personnel decisions. Here too, the Jets have already burned themselves badly. Basically, none of his buddies, most of whom were imported from Green Bay at his request, were convincing.
The signing of wide receiver Allen Lazard, who was inactive on Friday even though he is fit, is particularly expensive. He is still entitled to a guaranteed ten million dollars in salary in 2024. And that’s not even talking about the decision to hire Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator…
NFL: Weeks of truth for the Cowboys
The Cowboys really know how to overwhelm weak teams. After the 45:10 win over the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys lead the NFL with a point differential of +162 – only three other teams are at least in three figures after Week 12. And when it comes to weak teams, no team is as relentless as head coach Mike McCsrthy’s team.
In nine games against teams that are under .500 today, the Cowboys have an 8-1 record – we now consider the 16:28 loss in Arizona to be a major blip. As a mulligan, if you will. The problem for the Cowboys, however, is that they have only played two games against teams with a positive record today and lost twice – they even came under the wheels against the 49ers in Week 5 with a score of 10:42.
On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys excelled against the Commanders (4-8). But if they really want to attack at the top, they urgently need a few exclamation points. And wins against good teams. The coming weeks will therefore be even more exciting. Starting Thursday there will be five games in a row against teams with records over .500. First come the Seahawks, then the Eagles for the second time – Game 1 was narrowly lost in Philly – and then there are two difficult away trips to Buffalo and Miami. The Lions come on New Year’s Eve before facing Washington a second time.
According to ESPN, they have a 99.7 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. But they now have to prove how good they really are against really good opponents.
Marcus Blumberg