With the electoral campaign already underway, the mayoralty of Barcelona is confirmed as the most disputed battle of the municipal elections of the May 28. The four-way battle between Ada Colau, Ernest Maragall, Jaume Collboni and Xavier Trias continues to be extremely even, which keeps the unknowns as to who will win the elections and what alliances will be forged after the elections. During 2022, municipal surveys showed a technical tie for first position between Barcelona in Comú, CKD and the PSC, a photograph that was altered in the last weeks of the year with the irruption of Trias. Two weeks before the elections, Maragall seems to be falling behind the rest of his competitors.
The average of all the polls published on the Barcelona mayoral elections places together and the PSC in a technical tie at the head, with a difference of less than a tenth in favor of Trias. Just a week ago, JxCat’s lead was 1.3 points. Barcelona en Comú retains third place and ERC repeats in fourth place, but while the current mayoress improves her expectations, the Republican mayor falls back again.
Trias would achieve the 20.1% of the votes after losing eight tenths since the first week of May. Collboni would stay in the twenty% after adding four tenths compared to a week ago. The decline in Junts confirms the downward trend that began at the beginning of the month after the sustained growth that it had shown during April. Colau would get the 19.6% of the votes (one point more than a week ago) and maragall I would go up to the 14.7%seven tenths less than a week ago.
The range in which Trias, Collboni and Colau move is barely half a point, which makes the electoral victory of any of the three plausible. For his part, he PP it would obtain 7.2% of the ballots (two tenths more than the first week of May); vox, 5.7% (seven tenths more than a week ago); the CUP, 4.9% (one tenth more); and Citizens, 2.8% (seven tenths less). It should be remembered that the electoral law requires collecting at least one 5% of the votes to obtain representation in the city council.
Translated into councilors, the four main forces continue to move in a fork of only three councilors and there is a tie in the lead. together he would achieve 10 councilors (now he has 5); he PSC he would also get 10 (today he has 8); Barcelona in Comú he would get 9 (now he has 10); and CKD he would reap 7 (today he has 10). All the mayoral candidates maintain the same result as the first week of May. Farther away, the PP it would collect 3 councilors (now it has 2) and Vox would keep 2.
The extreme right would enter the consistory for the first time, from which the CUP. Furthermore, with these results, Citizens would leave the town hall after a convulsive mandate in which the brand imploded Barcelona by Canvithe coalition of Manuel Valls in 2019 that included the orange party and obtained 6 councilors.
The following table shows the results of all the surveys on the elections in Barcelona published by the different media since the municipal elections of 2019. We have only taken into account those surveys of demoscopic companies prepared from a updated new sampleexcluding those projections made through other Research Methods based, for example, on the accumulation of samples or the analysis of data from several studies.
The absolute majority in Barcelona City Council is set at 21 councilors, therefore, with these results, the winner or winner of the elections would be obliged to seek agreements with more than one formation to reach the mayoralty. In 2019, ERC won the Barcelona en Comú elections by just six tenths and 4,696 votes, but both forces tied 10 councilors. Colau prevented Maragall from unseating him as mayor thanks to his government pact with the PSC and the abstention of Valls’s coalition.