When I was in charge of American foreign policy, Henry Kissinger used to wonder: What phone number do I dial if I want to talk to Europe? Those still interested in communicating with who holds the reins of power in Argentina have the same problem. Until a few weeks ago, the presumably well-informed would have advised them to try their luck with Cristina Kirchner, but then the lady disassociated herself from the government she had put together; there are those who believe that she is no more than a marginal influencer who only has the adhesion of the less lucid militants of The Campora. Albert Fernandez? It has the political weight of a talking hologram. doSerge Massa? They say his stock has risen lately but not enough to allow him to do more than weave and unweave fleeting alliances with his eyes on 2023 or, perhaps, 2027.
It is that here the power has become glassy, elusive. If Argentina were a parliamentary country, A large part of it would already be in opposition hands, but, unfortunately, it is still a presidentialist, so that until further notice it will not have a government that is capable of doing much more than talking shit about Mauricio Macri.
That Cristina does not support Alberto, The whipper who served as bait to attract the votes of those disappointed by the engineer’s management without feeling any enthusiasm for his own eventual candidacy, has never been a secret. She despises him not only for publicly vilifying her a thousand times when she was president, but also because she agreed to play the unworthy role of junior partner in the scheme she devised. Although it is to be assumed that Alberto has always been more “moderate”, more “centrist” than Cristina, who likes spicy mixtures, it was never a question of ideological differences between the two. In his case, as in many others, the heartbreak is of almost exclusively personal origin.
All in all, the confusing debate about the country’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund gave Cristina a pretext to protest against the course undertaken by the government of which, in theory at least, it has remained a key member. While Alberto, various Peronist factions and almost all the members of Together for Change understood that breaking with the Fund, that is, with the financial world, would have cataclysmic consequences for Argentina and, what would be worse, could put an end to their own political careers, Cristina, her son and her most loyal supporters feared that refusing to do so would cost them many of the votes they need to keep justice at bay.
To the relief of those who do not live in the exciting Kirchnerist universe, the first won, but few believe that it is possible to close the gaps that have opened up between the factions that make up the ruling party. It will continue to be a collection of diverse groups with nothing in common except a certain nostalgia for the Peronism of other times or, at least, the awareness that, for those who aspire to find a comfortable niche in the permanent political class, it is convenient to pretend to respect the legacy of the general. Since the ideology of the movement is too diffuse to guide its adherents, what matters most is the loyalty of each to their respective political bosses.
This being the case, it is somewhat logical that for more than two years the national political scene has been dominated by the difficulties posed by the president’s relationship with the lady who put him where he is. To understand what is happening, you have to pay attention to details that in other circumstances would be meaningless, which is why something as insubstantial as Cristina’s pout will be subjected to an exhaustive analysis in case it provides indications of what could happen in the following weeks
Although many took it for granted that, if he did not have to worry about the admonitory proximity of his boss, Alberto would be someone else, perhaps a real president, it seemed that he preferred to fulfill the servile role that had been assigned to him until the negotiations with the IMF forced him to choose between her and a more than probable economic collapse. Naturally, the obvious differences between the two encouraged who prayed for Alberto to free himself from the incubus that, by means of a Faustian pact, had taken possession of it. Others, more skeptical, resigned themselves to the fact that he continued to subordinate absolutely everything, beginning with his own self-esteem, to a vain attempt to placate him.
According to official spokesmen, the agreement with the IMF nothing significant will change, since, impressed by Alberto’s firmness, the obnoxious guardians of world orthodoxy decided that it would be useless to try to force the government to adopt a strategy that could cause damage. Those who say that the agreement is innocuous are right. For those who have the leading voice in the Fund, that is, officials from the United States, Japan and China, the absolute priority was to ensure that Argentina did not fall into default with the organization just when the world economy entered a phase that threatens with becoming extremely agitated, hence the willingness to allow the debt to be refinanced without requiring it to take a certain set of measures.
In the short term, Alberto and even Martín Guzmán will be able to celebrate so much laxity on the part of characters who according to progressive mythology are ruthlessly tough, but it means that from now on they will not be able to share with anyone the responsibility for what they will have to do to prevent the economy from sinking completely. Whether they understand it or not, reality is much crueler than the technicians surrounding Kristalina Georgieva.
For similar reasons, the opposition has managed to ensure that the government cannot accuse it of being behind any “neoliberal” measures it is forced to take. For understandable reasons, Guzmán wanted that, in addition to paying for the refinancing of the debt with the IMF, Together for Change commit to supporting the program you have in mind; was unsuccessful. It is to be expected, therefore, that the opposition will veto those initiatives that, in its opinion, would further weaken the battered national “productive apparatus”, hence its aversion to more tax increases, and that it will look the other way when subsidies to customers are reduced. electoral of Kirchnerism.
Until now, the government has been reluctant to face economic reality; implies that it is not for him to try to modify it because It is a problem created by Macri. For the rest, for more than two years the officials who do not work have boasted of not having anything resembling an economic plan; they told those who asked for one that they would have to wait until the issue of the debt they inherited from the previous government had been resolved. Well, you are now free to act but, how could it be otherwise, the problems have become much worse in the interval they wasted. Inflation is accelerating, the cost of imported energy is rising at such a crazy rate that “realistic” rates would pulverize millions of precarious family budgets, and a new war between the Kirchnerists and the countryside could break out at any moment.
In principle, the invasion of the “breadbasket of the world” ordered by Vladimir Putin, Alberto’s friend, could be advantageous for the country. that days before the “special military operation” began, Argentina had been offered as “Russia’s gateway to Latin America”; he did not allude to the possibility of the country profiting from the large-scale drain of well-prepared Russian brains that has reportedly been set in motion as the Eurasian giant’s international isolation intensified.
In addition to producing abundant agricultural goods, Argentina has natural gas reserves that, according to experts, are among the largest on the planet. However, for now at least the country is not in a position to take advantage of a situation that should have been favorable. Vaca Muerta gas remains underground. Will the government try to interest Europeans in investing huge amounts of silver in projects that could free them from their geopolitically dangerous dependence on Russian supplies? Although one would suppose so, it would not be too surprising if it did little in that direction.
The same thing happens with Putin, whom he admires, Cristina’s power is based on her ability to do harm and his willingness to take advantage of it for reasons that are purely personal. For both of them, resigning to defeat is not an option. Most agree that the fate of the Russian depends on what happens in kyiv. In Cristina’s case, her loss of power will expose her to a series of legal proceedings that could culminate in her sentencing to long years behind bars. By opposing the agreement with the IMF and, whether she explicitly recognizes it or not, the formal president of the Republic, Cristina runs the risk of being the main victim of the probable disintegration of the regime she assembled to protect herself against the Justice that, despite the efforts Kirchnerists for stopping her, continues to advance towards her, although she is doing so with the exasperating slowness that is usual for her.
