This year, like last year, a new historic NATO summit is being held since its resurrection after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And it is historic in that it continues to strengthen its structures, their budgets and their strategic objectives. Now, like last year in Madrid, the main axis of debate is the link to be established with Ukraine and their potential incorporation into the organization. without forgetting the increased defense spending and the commitments acquired by the member states with the aim of increasing.
For weeks, a small group of countries have been working frantically to reach agreement on the declaration on the security guarantees that NATO could offer to Ukraine. The positions were divided into three. led by Germany and the US, which offered an Atlantic perspective without much specificity. The one that bet on a more specific road map in which they were located UK and France. And finally, that of the Baltics and Poland that they wanted express accession at all costs in order to start applying article 5 of the treaty. Zelensky’s speech has been very illustrative in this sense in his appeals to the winter war, to May in Prague or to Budapest 56.
Finally, as stated in the draft conclusions of the summit, NATO has been conservative and has preferred not to be trapped in irreversible commitments until the outcome of the war is seen. Therefore, the incorporation of Ukraine is off the negotiating table. On these issues, Washington’s position is always the one that sets the tone. But, in any case, Ukraine gets the membership action plan withdrawal, which reduces accession periods, the creation of a NATO-Ukraine Counciland takes the political commitment to maintain the aid.
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However, while there will be no Ukrainian accession, it appears that Sweden will not suffer the same fate. The news of lifting of the Turkish veto It has been, without a doubt, the star news of the summit. Something that, of course, Erdogan has not done altruistically, but for very pragmatic reasons, such as the unlocking achieved with Washington to to be able to modernize its F16 fleet and, especially, the green light to be able to buy new devices, while signing a bilateral security pact with Sweden and obtaining the creation of a special anti-terrorism coordinator in the NATO framework.
Thus, with these movements, NATO achieves, in the words of Biden, improve the defense of deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic region, always keeping an ace up his sleeve, such as the potential use of Ukraine’s membership as a bargaining chip depending on the development of the war. In other words, the organization is reinforced in number of members, partners and budget, in addition to covering its back in relation to Ukraine. But above all, prepare with an eye already set on other horizons and objectives that, of course, are not the European ones.