The German squad for the World Cup in Qatar includes 26 players. Who should national coach Hansi Flick play and what aces does he have up his sleeve? The data check reveals a surprising top eleven.
Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Müller or Jamal Musiala – not least the seven-strong block from FC Bayern was set in the nomination. Also players like Antonio Rüdiger from Real Madrid or Manchester City’s Ilkay Gündogan.
Flick also presented a few players on Thursday who have little or no national team experience at all: for example Armel Bella Kotchap (Southampton), Youssoufa Moukoko (Dortmund), Christian Günter (Freiburg) and Niclas Füllkrug (Bremen).
What is certain is that the squad has many facets – and a lot of quality. The data shows: Twelve players in the squad embody world class according to their current GSN index, 13 other players have international class.
However, the data also raises the question of whether the squad was really well put together. In the full-back positions, where the selection is limited anyway, the class drops significantly. In addition to strengths, there are also weaknesses – which could possibly have been compensated by nominating other players.
A lot has happened since the 2018 World Cup
There are ten players in Flick’s squad who weren’t there a year and a half ago at the European Championship. Compared to the 2018 World Cup, there are even 15 new players, with all three of the eleven players returning being goalkeepers. The German national team as a whole has changed a lot in recent years.
Because there is not much time after the end of the first half of the Bundesliga season on Sunday and before the first World Cup game in Qatar on November 23 against Japan, it is very likely that the national coach will primarily focus on the tried and tested.
What is the GSN Index?
Four-pillar principle:
- 1. “Football characteristics”: technique, game overview or first contact: assessments of 130 football-specific characteristics from more than 300 scouts worldwide.
- 2. “Football potential”: Where are players getting better, where are they stagnating or developing backwards? An algorithm analyzes data from the first pillar and compares player types.
- 3. “Performance on the field”: Goals, passes, fouls, shots or offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “Expected goals” or “Action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm – for example position-related .
- 4. “Level of play”: Each team or league has a numerical value that measures its strength. Oberliga or Champions League: The higher the opponent’s level of play, the more positive it affects the GSN index.
Rating scale:
- 85 – 100: World class
- 70 – 85: international class
- 60 – 70: average of the Bundesliga and the top 5 leagues
- 50 – 60: Average 2nd Bundesliga
Two GSN index values:
- Current GSN Index: shows the current, all-encompassing quality of a player based on data from the four pillars and algorithm calculations.
- possible GSN index: Artificial intelligence uses the data to determine the best possible future performance level of a player.
In addition to goalkeeper Neuer, the national goalkeeping coach Andreas Kronenberg has already given a regular place guarantee in advance (“There was no consideration to declare an open duel”), almost the entire Bayern block should be in the starting eleven. Only Thomas Müller, who was recently injured, would initially have the role of joker.
The most prominent victim of the Bayern block would be Gündogan
The center with Kimmich and Leon Goretzka is just as well-rehearsed as the row of three before it with Serge Gnabry, Musiala and Leroy Sané – and at the highest level. The performance is right in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League. According to the performance score, all five belong to the top eleven.
What is the performance score?
- Goals, passes, fouls, shots or offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “Expected goals” or “Action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm in the “Performance Score” – for example position-related.
- In the “Performance Score” all players are initially set to 0 and are evaluated on the basis of pure performance data combined with data models.
- This value provides an assessment of how well or poorly a player is currently playing.
- The “Performance Score” is a component of the GSN Index, which in turn is a general, long-term evaluation of all skills, potential and qualities of a player.
Kimmich (71.32), Goretzka (67.58), Musiala (70.83), Sané (69.58) and Gnabry (65.09) set standards in their positions. And even if Gündogan should actually be in the starting XI with his GSN index of 88.11, Flick has good reasons to leave the Gelsenkirchen native out for the time being in view of the Munich performance. Six starting eleven places would have already been taken.
Center forward: Best chances for Havertz
Over the past few weeks and months, no other position has been discussed as much as that of the centre-forward. No wonder: if Germany has shone at international level in the past, it has always been with or thanks to (at least) one world-class striker. And one of these has been sorely missed for a number of years.
After the injuries to Timo Werner and Lukas Nmecha, Flick’s selection was also more manageable. With Füllkrug, Karem Adeyemi and Moukoko, the national coach nominated three largely unknown slates at international level.
Füllkrug brings physicality and power that are otherwise missing in the squad. Moukoko is considered a talent of the century. The 17-year-old is good at dribbling, agile and technically adept. He has everything to become a world-class striker. With his spectacular goals in the BVB jersey, the Cameroonian drew attention to himself at exactly the right time. His Dortmund teammate Adeyemi impresses with an extreme pace.
But the trio unites that they are new to the team. Their time should come in the tournament – if their qualities are needed depending on the course of the game. But like last time, Flick should trust Kai Havertz from Chelsea FC in the storm center. Even if the 23-year-old is actually a born playmaker. After Neuer (94.03) and Sané (91.35), the GSN index shows Havertz (91.28) as the third best German player.
Construction site defense – chain of four wobbles
The occupation of the back four is also an ongoing topic. The last competitive game without conceding a goal was the 9-0 in the World Cup qualifier against Liechtenstein exactly one year ago. The last time Germany did not concede a goal against a nation that is now also in Qatar was on September 6, 2018 – in a 0-0 draw against France in the Nations League.
The German back four in the Nations League
In Italy (1:1, from right): Henrichs, Süle, Rüdiger, Kehrer
Against England (1:1): Klostermann, Rüdiger, Schlotterbeck, Raum
In Hungary (1:1): Kehrer, Süle, Schlotterbeck, Raum
Against Italy (5: 2): Klostermann, Süle, Rüdiger, space
Against Hungary (0:1): Hofmann, Süle, Rüdiger, Raum
In England (3:3): Kehrer, Süle, Schlotterbeck, Raum
It is no coincidence that the national coach has always changed in defense this Nations League season. A new defender was always in the starting line-up compared to the previous matchday. Usually there were two or three new ones. Apparently, Flick has not yet convinced any cast.
There are actually only two positions for the three players in central defence, Antonio Rüdiger (GSN index 87.84), Nico Schlotterbeck (78.88) and Niklas Süle (85.44). Where Schlotterbeck speaks that he is the only left foot.
Probably an out-of-position player on the right back
However, it is not unlikely that all three will find a place in flicks 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1. Because Süle should be the first choice as a right-back – just like recently a few times in Dortmund.
Leipzig’s Lukas Klostermann is the only nominal right-back in the squad – and according to the GSN index (70.74) the second weakest player in the squad. Jonas Hofmann (74.18) has already shown that he can play at right back. Unlike Süle, however, the Gladbacher has no routine in the position. Interestingly, Flick decided against the – on paper – strongest German right-back: Wolfsburg’s Ridle Baku (82.02) did not receive an invitation.
David Raum “extremely hyped” but “generally overestimated”
This also applies to Italy legionnaire Robin Gosens (84.43 / Inter Milan) on the other side. Flick chose David Raum (71.61/Leipzig) and Christian Günter (68.24/Freiburg).
Raum kicks strong standards and some say he hits the best crosses in Germany. However, the high-flyer of recent years still has weaknesses on the defensive. According to GSN, space has been “extremely hyped but generally overrated”. In addition, Raum is not playing a particularly good season, as the performance score shows.
Raum has clocked up 1,783 minutes in 23 games this season in all competitions. His performance is rated at 56.61 points. For comparison: Gosens, who has had a difficult year in Milan and only played 837 minutes in his 18 appearances, has a performance of 58.35.
Which line-up does Flick choose?
In the end there is a likely starting eleven for the game against Japan. It shows the best players in the squad according to the GSN index that Flick nominated.
According to current GSN index: Neuer (94.03) – Süle (85.44), Rüdiger (87.84), Schlotterbeck (78.88), Raum (71.61) – Kimmich (90.07), Goretzka (87.92) – Gnabry (88.91), Musiala (86.52), Sané (91.35) – Havertz (91.28).
However, there would be four changes if the national coach only lined up according to performance this season – i.e. according to the performance score. Marc-André ter Stegen from FC Barcelona, Günter and Matthias Ginter from Freiburg and Werder’s filling jug would move in. But it would be a big surprise if any of them started the first group game.
By performance score: ter Stegen (62.34) – Süle (63.59), Ginter (65.08), Rüdiger (63.60), Günter (61.10) – Kimmich (71.32), Goretzka (67.58) – Gnabry (65.09), Musiala (70.83), Sané (69.58) – pitcher (62.35)
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NDR Info | 10.11.2022 | 14:00 clock
