“There are all signs that the plan has in a sense already started,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in conversation with the BBC. According to intelligence services, Russia plans to invade Ukraine and surround the capital Kiev. Johnson fears the invasion will cost many lives. The Americans also warn again of an invasion and are said to hold a security meeting in Ukraine on Sunday.
military operations in the east of the country.
Ⓒ ANP / AFP
Violence between the two sides has flared up considerably in recent days, according to observers. Both the rebels and the military have accused each other of violating the truce in the region and opening fire. Among other things, a school would have been hit this week. There would also be fights and explosions on Saturday. Observers are on alert.
Fear of escalation
Johnson reports that US President Joe Biden has told Western leaders that intelligence agencies expect Russia to invade Ukraine not only through the east, through the Donbas region, but also from Belarus and the region around Kiev. “I’m afraid to say that the plan we see could really be the biggest war in Europe since 1945, if only in scale,” said the prime minister. People had to consider not only the possible loss of Ukrainian lives, but also that of “young Russians,” he added. The full interview will be broadcast on the BBC on Sunday morning.
The government army and separatists have been embroiled in a civil war in eastern Ukraine since 2014 that has killed more than 14,000 people. The peace process was launched in 2014 and 2015 with agreements concluded in the Belarusian capital Minsk.
According to the latest US government estimates, the number of troops along the Ukrainian border, in both Belarus and Russia, is between 170,000 and 190,000. The West fears that the Russians could attack at any moment, but Moscow has so far denied that it intends to do so, saying it will only conduct military exercises in the region and even withdraw troops. Satellite images suggest otherwise.
The situation at the Ukraine-Russia border remains grim and grim. According to diplomatic expert Robert van de Roer, the NATO countries are remarkably strongly united, but the big question remains what exactly Putin is planning.
Minsk chords
Part of the Minsk agreements was a ceasefire, but that is violated almost daily. Last week, Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France discussed compliance with the so-called Minsk agreements for hours. That yielded no results.
Tensions in the region have recently risen sharply due to the threat of a Russian invasion. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported more than 1,500 ceasefire violations on Friday. That is the highest number this year. There were 591 violations in the Donetsk region and 975 in neighboring Lugansk, partly controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
The separatists would have used heavy artillery, according to Kiev. They in turn accuse the government of not complying with the agreements. A grenade attack from the Ukrainian side is said to have severely damaged a water pipe in Donetsk on Saturday. And during a visit to the front line, mortar shells exploded near Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastirski. Russia reported grenades that would have caused damage just over the border.
Russia plans large-scale attack
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg expects the Russian army to carry out a “large-scale attack” on Ukraine. The secretary general of the military alliance said Saturday in Munich where a security conference is taking place.
“All signs indicate that Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told German broadcaster ARD. “We all agree that the probability of an attack is very high.”
According to him, no Russian troops will be withdrawn from the border area with Ukraine, as Russia claims, but more will be added. According to the Norwegian, there are also signs that Russia is trying to provide an opportunity for an invasion.
Diplomatic way out
In line with the statement from the foreign ministers of the wealthy G7 countries earlier today, Stoltenberg calls on Russia to seek a diplomatic solution.
For security reasons, NATO has now started the evacuation of personnel from the Ukrainian capital Kiev to Lviv, in the west of the country and to the Belgian capital, Brussels. “The safety of our staff is paramount, which is why staff has been moved to Lviv and Brussels. NATO offices in Ukraine remain operational,” a NATO official told AFP.