Why do Finland and Sweden want to join?
For many Finns and Swedes, the world changed on February 24. On that day, they saw on television how Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine, while the rest of Europe looked on. Certainly, weapons were sent and refugees were received, but ultimately Ukraine is on its own as a non-Nato member. Never, many Finns and Swedes must have thought.
For the first time, opinion polls in both countries show a clear preference for NATO membership. In Finland there is also a majority in parliament. President Sauli Niinistö travels around the main NATO countries, possibly to secure support. In Sweden, the enthusiasm is slightly less. The social-democratic ruling party in particular is divided; the left flank has little interest in a military alliance with nuclear power the United States. But analysts expect that if Finland announces its NATO ambitions, Sweden will follow.
The two countries have long been working closely together on defense issues, and maintaining its neutral status would put Sweden in an uneasy strategic position. “The Finns are our trailblazers,” says Swedish NATO expert Anna Wieslander. The red carpet has been rolled out at NATO itself. “If they want to, they can easily join,” said NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg.
Why is this so special?
Finland and Sweden have had a formal neutral status for a long time. Sweden has been neutral since 1812, after losing much of its territory in the Napoleonic Wars. Finland was forced by the Soviet Union to remain neutral after World War II, partly to keep the West at bay (Finland and Russia share a 1,300-kilometer-long border).
When Finland was finally free to choose after the end of the Cold War, it joined the EU and the Eurogroup. But NATO membership always proved a bridge too far, especially since Moscow made it clear that Finnish NATO membership would have consequences. In recent weeks, the Russians have repeatedly threatened ‘military and political consequences’.
What are the concrete risks?
Experts expect severe repercussions. “The Russians will make it very unpleasant for the Finns,” said Eoin McNamara, NATO expert at the Finnish Institute of International Relations. ‘Think of missile tests, military exercises at the border, disinformation campaigns, intimidation and cyber attacks.’ According to him, Moscow is already trying to intimidate. “Just yesterday I got an email warning my boss about malware. He added: ‘This will increase as the NATO discussion becomes more intensive in the coming period.’
The greatest risks, however, lie in the period between the application for NATO membership and its ratification. During that period, which could last up to a year and a half, Finland and Sweden have not yet been formally protected by NATO. “Russia and also China may try to destabilize things here. That can become very annoying,” said NATO expert Wieslander.
Is there anything that can be done?
It looks like that. Normally, aspiring members must first demonstrate that they meet all political and military criteria, a time-consuming procedure. But NATO boss Stoltenberg already hinted that Finland and Sweden have already met all the conditions for a long time. ‘Everything indicates that things can go very quickly’, says Wieslander.
But even with swift approval, the enlargement will still have to be approved by the parliaments of the 30 Member States. Recently, NATO has been thinking about how to bridge this period of vulnerability. A possible solution is that Finland and Sweden receive temporary security guarantees from important NATO members such as the US, France and Turkey. “I am sure we will find ways to allay those concerns about that period,” said NATO chief Stoltenberg.
According to Wieslander, a security pact is the only option. “It’s the new reality: you need a guarantee that a nuclear power is behind you, should Moscow threaten nuclear weapons. I would certainly like to have it on paper.’
Have the worries gone away?
New. The ratification process can cause problems if the parliament of one of the thirty NATO members does not agree with the enlargement. There will be plenty of parliamentarians who don’t like the idea of NATO moving to the 1,300-kilometer-long border between Finland and Russia. And no one knows how Russian President Putin will react.
Analysts worry that Putin would seize the NATO expansion to claim his own “sphere of influence” in countries like Georgia. “It is unclear what his ultimate goal is,” says Wieslander. “That is why it is all the more important for Finland and Sweden to show that they are on the other side.”