Visiting a NATO meeting in Bucharest on Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Cooleba made an emphatic appeal to the allies: “Patriot air defense systems and transformers, that’s what we need most.” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that countries are promising extra contributions and confirmed that there is “a discussion going on” within the alliance about supplying Patriots, a system that is used not only by the US, but also by the Netherlands, Germany, Greece and Spain.
In Romania on Tuesday, the allies did everything they could to maintain their unity towards Russian aggression towards Ukraine. “The coming month is a test for all of us,” said Slovak foreign minister Ratislav Kacer, “an existential test for Ukraine, a moral one for us.” His Lithuanian colleague Vytautas Landsbergis brought a simple recipe: ‘Keep calm and give tanks.’
Hairline cracks
But under the front of unanimity, the hairline cracks are becoming increasingly visible – and they are no longer limited to Italian doubts, Turkey’s own way, or Hungarian extortion attempts (EU money in exchange for aid to Ukraine). There are also increasing transatlantic tensions, although everyone realizes that they must not break through the closed front. It is partly about the major consequences of the war in Ukraine – in terms of the economy, food supply and energy prices – which turn out very differently on both sides of the ocean.
The tensions are partly a result of Europe’s previous geopolitical choices: the abolition of strong armed forces and the increased dependence on Russian gas even after the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The United States has provided by far the most military and economic support to Ukraine. Kyiv’s European neighbors have given even more in percentage terms, but like much of the rest of the continent they are now reaching the limits of their limited capacity.
The Europeans were not prepared for a major ground war devouring ammunition on both sides. As Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted, “A day in Ukraine is a month or more in Afghanistan.” The US has more to offer, although even they now threaten to get into trouble with certain types of weapons and ammunition.
Technological battle against China
That Europe is also lagging behind in economic support is even more difficult to explain and is increasingly becoming a political factor in Washington. The US therefore wants Europe to not only do more for Ukraine, but also to join their technological battle against China.
Washington is seriously considering a conflict over Taiwan and wants not only American but also European companies to stop transferring technology that can also be used by Beijing for military applications. How America and Europe relate to China is a topic not only on the agenda of the NATO meeting in Romania, but also of French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington this week.
There will also be some of the increasingly loud European grumbling about two other things: the large profits that American companies make from the sale of liquefied gas to Europe and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the gigantic climate law that President Joe Biden dragged through Congress and which, according to Europeans, is one big subsidy for American industry.
‘Europe pays for the war, not the US’
The combined effect of the IRA and energy prices, which are much higher in Europe than in the US and elsewhere, is deadly, say European experts and politicians. It could lead to a ‘wave of deindustrialisation in Europe’, says French expert Sébastien Jean. In Brussels, these kinds of warnings are taken very seriously. French European Commissioner Thierry Breton already preaches privately that ‘Europe pays for the war, not the US’. And Macron is dreaming aloud of a ‘Buy European Act’ following the American (and Chinese) example.
‘The Inflation Reduction Act compensates against the WTO rules in American companies for energy expenditure,’ says MEP Bart Groothuis (VVD). ‘Europe cannot stand by and watch our industry lose competitiveness due to unfair practices.’
After nine months, this shows how the consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine not only create Western consensus, but also new internal fissile material. Transatlantic trade disputes are nothing new in themselves, but this time there is a serious clash at an inopportune time. As with NATO in Bucharest, Macron’s reception by Biden in the White House will focus on lasting unity: helping Ukraine through the winter together. But it is undeniable that there is also more and more work to be done internally between the allies.