If it is up to national parties, the upcoming municipal elections will mainly revolve around tackling the housing shortage. At the kick-off of the campaign, the PvdA presented a real manifesto on Saturday to tackle the lack of affordable housing. “Too much is now being built for people with the biggest mouths and the highest incomes,” said PvdA leader Lilianne Ploumen, who wants, among other things, a fine for owners who leave houses empty.
On Sunday, GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver hammered at a meetup in The Hague about the ‘huge housing crisis’ on the same anvil. The SP, which kicked off the campaign in Heerlen on Saturday, focuses more broadly on well-being in ‘the neighbourhoods’, but also looks at the housing market. Earlier, CDA and D66 also spoke about ‘homes for everyone’ in their campaign statements. As government parties, they pride themselves on the fact that scarcity will now really be tackled, for example by abolishing the landlord levy for housing associations and extra money for construction projects.
Biggest Competitors
Is it logical that national parties are focusing on this theme before the municipal elections? In any case, it is a way to distinguish themselves from their biggest competitors on March 15, 16 and 17: the local parties. In 2018, with 28.7 percent of the vote, they attracted far more voters than the largest national party in the municipal councils (the VVD with 13.5 percent). Unlike established politicians, the local parties will not be able to screen in their campaigns in the coming weeks with national proposals to cope with the scarcity.
Whether it will really help is the question. ‘Policy is partly determined nationally, but local parties will also tackle the issue and campaign with it’, says political science professor Gerrit Voerman. ‘The fact that policy is partly determined nationally also makes the established parties vulnerable. The local parties can say that they just let it go in The Hague.’
Political scientist Simon Otjes also does not expect the trend towards local parties to be reversed. Two factors that have been a driving force behind the advance of the local parties for some time now play a major role: increasing fragmentation in The Hague and relatively low confidence in national politics, especially after the slow formation and the controversial corona policy.
dissatisfaction
‘The cards have been shuffled very well for local parties,’ says Otjes. ‘Something very exceptional has to happen if they don’t want to do even better than they did four years ago. All the attention for the housing file will probably not help the national parties either. There is not one party that is now the silver bullet has to solve that problem.’
Voters who are dissatisfied with the established parties are looking for an alternative in the municipal elections. This is often found among the local parties, also because the national parties that mobilize dissatisfaction in the fragmented political landscape in The Hague fail to act in municipal politics.
That is now the case. New opposition parties that are doing well in the polls – BBB, Ja21, Volt – are barely visible on the ballot papers of the 333 municipalities that will soon go to the polls. They prefer to use their limited human and financial resources for the provincial council elections of 2023, because seats in the Senate can then also be earned.
Forum for Democracy still shows some local ambition of the newcomers. Thierry Baudet’s party is now participating in 50 municipalities. The Party for the Animals is on the ballot in 30 municipalities, the PVV in 31 municipalities. The SP is losing ground, also due to internal conflicts with local branches: in 2018 the party was still active in 110 municipalities, this time only in 86 places.
The more traditional governing parties, however, remain relatively stable. CDA (327 municipalities), VVD (314), PvdA (265, including collaborations) and D66 (247) still have the largest local footprint of the national parties. At the same time, it is precisely these established parties that suffer from low confidence in politics. The CDA in particular, as an old superpower in the municipal councils, must fear being punished: of the 13.8 percent of the votes that the party received in the last municipal elections, only about 6 percent would now remain, according to a recent poll by I&O. .
Otjes thinks that the decline in the municipal councils is ‘a huge problem’ for the national parties. “Even more for the left-wing parties than for the right-wing parties. Certainly parties such as PvdA, GroenLinks and SP largely depend on contributions from local representatives and aldermen for their financial income. A bad result can leave a big hole in the budget.’
Old superpowers such as CDA and PvdA are also getting into ‘a downward spiral’ due to the local losses, says Professor Voerman. ‘If you lose your position locally, you also lose contact with voters. Members drop out, councilors and aldermen lose their jobs, the organization has to be cut, the entire tradition and status is crumbling. The swing goes out.’
With the cooperation of Serena Frijters and Xander van Uffelen