Our daily assessment of the US stock index Nasdaq for Monday, September 4th, 2023 – DAYTRADING
Nasdaq Review:
The Nasdaq was trading around 15,534 points Friday morning. The index recovered gradually and moderately in the morning and at noon. In the afternoon it went up to the TH in a dynamic upward movement. However, the entire movement was subsequently sold off again. The Nasdaq slipped below 15,500 points into the evening but managed to format a weekly close above the 15,500 point mark. During early trading, it continued sideways in a box.
We were on the upside by crossing the 15,648/50 point mark expectedthat Nasdaq could run to our next target at 15,662/64 points. This movement has set in, the target was just missed, so the setup didn’t work optimally. The setbacks, on the other hand, went exactly to our next target on the bottom at 15,456/54 points when we fell below 15,470/68.
Nasdaq chart check – viewing in the 1h chart:
The Nasdaq was trading above the SMA20 Friday morning (currently at 15,531 points). The chart shows that the index was able to rise significantly in the afternoon and then gave up all gains. It approached and fell below the SMA50 (currently at 15,530 points) in the course of the downward movement, under which the Nasdaq also established itself at the end of the week.
As a result, the hourly chart has clouded over. As long as the Nasdaq is below the SMA50 / SMA20 at the end of the hour, there could be further losses that could go up into the SMA200 area (currently at 15,239 points).
The bulls on the other hand must try to push the Nasdaq back above the SMA20 / SMA50 and establish it as quickly as possible by the end of the hour. It is then also important to move the index up quickly. If this succeeds, it could go further up towards the 15,680/695 point mark or further up to 15,775/90 points.
- Assessment of short-term chart, forecast: neutral / bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The Nasdaq has been able to push and settle above the SMA50 (currently at 15,268 points) and the SMA20 (currently at 15,511 points). As part of the upward movement, it went to and above the SMA200 (currently at 15,371 points), above which the Nasdaq was also able to establish itself afterwards. The setbacks on Friday afternoon were able to stabilize and recover in the haze of the SMA20.
This leaves the overriding chart to be interpreted bullishly. As long as the Nasdaq is above the SMA20, the start-up targets defined in the hourly analysis could be achieved.
However, if it goes below the SMA20 or the SMA200 again and the index establishes itself below the SMA200, further setbacks could occur, which could go as far as the SMA50 area. If this support does not hold, the chart picture would cloud over again significantly.
- Assessment of the overall chart, forecast: bullish
Nasdaq – outlook for today:
The Nasdaq is currently trading around 15,543 points, 9 points above Friday morning’s level.
long setup: the index could initially try to stay above the 15,543 point mark. If successful, it could continue up to our next targets at 15557/59, 15573/75, 15591/93, 15609/11, 15623/25, 15636/38, 15648/50 and 15648/50 respectively 15,662/64 points. Above the 15,662/64 point mark, the index could reach our next targets at 15,675/77, 15,689/91, 15,703/05, 15,715/17, 15,729/31, 15,741/43 and then 15,755/57 points run.
Short setup: if Nasdaq cannot hold above 15,543 points, it could continue down to our next targets at 15,531/29, at 15,517/15, at 15,506/04, at 15,497/95, at 15,483/81, at 15,470/ 68, at 15.456/54 and then at 15.443/41 points. Below the 15,443/41 point mark, our next targets would be 15,429/27, 15,416/14, 15,403/01, 15,391/89, 15,382/80, 15,371/69, 15,356/54, 15,345/43 , at 15,334/32, at 15,319/17 and at 15,311/09 points.
Nasdaq resistances
- 15,559
- 15,611
- 15,717
- 15,918
- 16,055
Nasdaq supports
- 15.540/31/30/11
- 15,415
- 15.389/71/69
- 15.268/39
- 15,170
Based on our setup, we anticipate a sideways/up market today. This results in the following probabilities:
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup 45%
This assessment is always to be seen in relation to the pre-market.
15,575 points / 15,611 points to 15,506 points / 15,454 points is the daily range we are expecting today.
Sources: xStation5 by XTB
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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