Our daily assessment of the US stock index Nasdaq for Friday, September 1st, 2023 – DAYTRADING
Nasdaq Review:
The Nasdaq was trading yesterday morning in the range of 15,494 points. The index ran sideways in a tight box until midday, then fell moderately and formatted the daily low. From here it went to the 15,600 point mark in a few impulses. However, the bulls failed to pin the Nasdaq above this level. In the afternoon there were moderate sales, the losses were initially bought back. In later trading, the prices fell moderately, but the Nasdaq was able to show a small daily gain. During early trading, it continued sideways in a tight box.
On the upside, we had expected the Nasdaq to run to our next target at 15,609/11 points by crossing the 15,591/93 point mark. This movement has set in, the target was not reached, the setup didn’t fit. The setbacks did not go below 15,468/66 to our next target on the bottom at 15,454/52 points
Nasdaq chart check – viewing in the 1h chart:
The Nasdaq traded above the SMA20 yesterday morning (currently at 15,540 points). The chart shows that the index initially fell below this average line around noon, but was then able to move back above the SMA20 in the afternoon. The setback in the evening was also able to stabilize and recover in the area of this line.
This has not changed anything in the interpretation of the hourly chart. As long as the index is above the SMA20 at the end of the hour, it could continue to rise. Above the 15,680/695 area, the Nasdaq could continue higher towards the 15,775/90 area.
If setbacks occur, they could initially run to the SMA20. There could be a recovery here. If the SMA20 is abandoned on an hourly closing basis, the SMA50 (currently at 15,497 points) as well as, further down, the SMA200 (currently at 15,178 points) could provide additional support.
- Assessment of short-term chart, forecast: bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The Nasdaq has been able to push and settle above the SMA50 (currently at 15,203 points) and the SMA20 (currently at 15,433 points). As part of the upward movement, it went to and above the SMA200 (currently at 15,381 points). In yesterday’s trading, the Nasdaq was able to settle above the SMA200.
As long as the Nasdaq is above the SMA200, the start-up targets defined in the hourly analysis could be achieved.
However, if it goes below the SMA20 / SMA200 again and the index establishes itself below these two lines, further setbacks could occur, which could go as far as the SMA50 area. If this support does not hold, the chart picture would cloud over again significantly.
- Assessment of the overall chart, forecast: bullish
Nasdaq – outlook for today:
The Nasdaq is trading in the 15,534 area, up 40 points from yesterday morning’s level.
long setup: the index could initially try to stay above the 15,534 point mark. If successful, it could continue up to our next targets at 15541/43, at 15557/59, at 15573/75, at 15591/93, at 15609/11, at 15623/25, at 15636/38, at 15648 /50 or at 15,662/64 points. Above the 15,662/64 point mark, the index could reach our next targets at 15,675/77, 15,689/91, 15,703/05, 15,715/17, 15,729/31, 15,741/43 and then 15,755/57 points run.
Short setup: if Nasdaq cannot hold above 15,534 points, it could continue down to our next targets at 15,520/18, at 15,506/04, at 15,497/95, at 15,483/81, at 15,470/68, at 15,456/ 54 and then go at 15,443/41 points. Below the 15,443/41 point mark, our next targets would be 15,429/27, 15,416/14, 15,403/01, 15,392/90, 15,381/79, 15,369/67, 15,356/54, 15,345/43 , at 15,334/32, at 15,319/17 and at 15,311/09 points.
Nasdaq resistances
- 15,540
- 15,611
- 15,717
- 15,918
- 16,055
Nasdaq supports
- 15.497/33
- 15.381/79/56
- 15.288/41/03
- 15,178
Based on our setup, we anticipate a sideways/up market today. This results in the following probabilities:
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup 45%
This assessment is always to be seen in relation to the pre-market.
15,611 points / 15,677 points to 15,442 points / 15,390 points is the daily range we are expecting today.
Sources: xStation5 by XTB
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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