Our daily assessment of the US stock index Nasdaq for Friday, March 3rd, 2023
Nasdaq Review:
The Nasdaq was trading in the 11,880 area yesterday morning. The index formatted its daily low right in the morning. From here it initially went up moderately, with the profits being more or less all given back afterwards, but the TT was no longer started. It gradually went up in the afternoon. In later trading, there was another comparatively dynamic upward movement, which almost reached 12,100 points. During early trading, it continued to move sideways in a box. In the course of this, the Nasdaq was able to stay above the 12,000 point mark.
On the upside, we had expected Nasdaq to run to our next target at 12,094/96 points by crossing the 12,083/85 point mark. This movement has set in, the start-up target has been reached exactly, the setup has taken effect perfectly. The setbacks went below our next target on the bottom at 11,839/37 points by falling below the 11,851/49 point mark.
Nasdaq chart check – viewing in the 1h chart:
The Nasdaq traded below the SMA20 yesterday morning (currently at 11,978 points). The index was able to recover, but the hourly chart clearly shows that momentum was initially extremely low. It only went above this average line in the afternoon. In the evening it was then possible to run in the direction of the SMA50 (currently at 11,989 points). This average line could be overcome. The index was able to establish itself above this line in early trading.
With this move, the hourly chart has brightened up a bit. As long as the Nasdaq manages to hold above the SMA50 at the close of the hour, it could continue higher towards the SMA200 (currently at 12,107 points). The chart picture would brighten bullishly if the index manages not only to push itself above the SMA200 at the end of the hour, but also to establish it. Should this succeed, it could, in case of doubt also dynamically, go further upwards in the area of 12,650/720 points.
Setbacks could initially occur up to the SMA50 / SMA20. Both lines are currently close together. If it falls below these two average lines at the end of the hour, further setbacks could occur, which have the prospect of going back to the weekly low of the previous week.
- Assessment of the short-term chart, forecast: neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The chart shows that the Nasdaq failed at the SMA20 (currently at 12,029 points) in the last week of trading. There have been numerous attempts to recross this line, all of which have been unsuccessful. The last attempt to get over the SMA20 was started yesterday and is currently running.
The Nasdaq not only has to push itself above the SMA20, but also subsequently come above the SMA50 (currently at 12,096 points). It remains to be seen whether this will succeed, as there have been problems running over the SMA20 for days. But if this succeeds, for example in a dynamic upward movement, it could go further up to the SMA200 (currently at 12,171 points.
If the index establishes itself below the SMA20 again, further setbacks could occur, which have the prospect of running into the area of the January low.
- Assessment of the overall chart, forecast: bearish
Nasdaq outlook for today, forecast:
The Nasdaq is currently trading in the area of 12,040 points and is thus around 160 points above yesterday morning’s level.
Long setups: The index could initially try to stay above the 12,040 point mark. Should this succeed, it could go further up to our next targets at 12056/58, 12069/71, 12083/85 and then 12094/96 points. If the index can move above 12,094/96 points, our next targets would be 12,106/08, 12,119/21, 12,132/34, 12,145/47, 12,155/57 and then 12,171/73 points . Above the 12,171/73 mark, the Nasdaq could start our targets at 12,184/86, at 1/12/98/200, at 12,211/13, at 12,224/26, at 12,235/37, at 12,245/47, at 12,259/61 and then start at 12.173/75 points.
Short setups: If the Nasdaq cannot hold above the 12,040 mark, it could continue down to our next targets at 12,029/27, at 12,015/13, at 11,998/96, at 11,989/87, at 11,978/76, at 11,965 /63, at 11,951/48, at 11,940/38 and then at 11,925/23 points. Below the 11,925/23 points, the index could start our targets at 11,915/13, at 11,904/02, at 11,890/88, at 11,878/76, at 11,864/62, at 11,858/56, at 11,843/41 and then at 11,828/ achieve 26 points.
Nasdaq resistances
- 12,096
- 12.107/71
- 12,320
- 12,431
Nasdaq supports
- 12,029
- 11.989/78/33
- 11,858
Based on our setup, we anticipate a sideways/up market today. This results in the following probabilities:
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup 55%
- Probability Bear Scenario based on our setup 45%
This assessment is always in relation to the pre-exchange to see.
12,096 points / 12,157 points to 11,978 points / 11,858 points is the daily range we are expecting today.
Sources: xStation5 by XTB
WORLDWIDE INDEXES TRADE ON XTB
- Particularly low spreads in the long trading hours from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.!
- Mini CFDs, trading from 0.01 contracts
- Particularly precise pricing & chartingbased on the index futures
- More on index trading at XTB here
Disclosure according to § 80 WpHG for the purpose of possible conflicts of interest
The author may be invested in the securities or underlyings discussed.
The authors of the publications compile that information at their own risk. Analysis and opinions are not written with reference to the specific investment objectives and needs of any person. XTB publications commenting on specific situations in the financial markets and general statements made by XTB employees regarding the financial markets, do not constitute and should not be construed as advice to the customer by XTB. XTB is not liable for any loss arising directly or indirectly from decisions made regarding the content of the publications.
Risk Notice
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money quickly because of leverage. 80% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Investment success and profits from the past do not guarantee success in the future. XTB content, newsletters and communications do not constitute investment advice promotional message to understand.
