Napoli-Milan, the prediction: 1 + Over 2.5 is worth 3.00

Leaders Napoli host Milan at Maradona: kick-off Sunday at 20.45. Spalletti’s team without Osimhen, out due to injury, comes from the 4-0 success against Turin. The Rossoneri lost the last round of the championship against Udinese.

Prediction: 1 + Over 2.5

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Considering the last nine days of the championship, only Lecce (six) has collected more defeats than Milan (five) in Serie A and only Cremonese (17) has conceded more goals than the Rossoneri (16). That’s why 1 + Over 2.5 is a risky but possible bet: 3.00 the evaluation of Bet365, 2.99 according to Betfair and 2.85 on Sisal.

Quotes

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According to the main betting sites, Napoli has a much better chance of winning: the 1 mark is rated 1.90 by Betfair, 1.87 for Snai and 1.85 on Sisal. The eventual success of Milan is quoted 4.65 by Planetwin, 4.55 by Better and 4.50 by Sisal. While the X is offered 3.65 by Sportbet and Planetwin, 3.58 on Novibet. The Azzurri scored first in 20 out of 27 matches, and it is Spalletti’s team that unlocks the result is set at 1.62 by Sisal, 1.57 for Betfair and 1.53 according to Bet365. Kvaratskhelia and his companions are the team that scored the most goals in the second half: 34. The Over 1.5 in the second 45′ is listed at 2.13 by Netbet and Betway, 2.10 according to Snai. Even the goal sign can be worth the bet: 1.91 for Bet365, 1.85 according to Starcasinò Bet and 1.83 on Betfair.

Napoli is one of the teams that takes the most corners in the match: around five. Milan are stuck at three, the Over 9.5 corner kicks are quoted at 1.85 by Betfair and Snai, 1.83 according to Bet365. Beware of yellow cards, Tonali has received seven yellow cards. A card from the Rossoneri midfielder in the match is quoted at 2.10 by the bookies.

The markers

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Osimhen’s absence will weigh on Napoli. The Nigerian striker is traveling at an average of one goal every 91 minutes in the league. Milan are Zielinski’s favorite victim in Serie A: four goals, including his first brace (August 25, 2018). The Polish midfielder has dished seven assists so far and is chasing his season-high (10). A winning goal or pass is quoted at 2.70 by the bookies. Giroud has scored in his last two league games against Napoli and could become the first Milan player to score in three straight matches against the Azzurri since 1994/95. Anytime goalscorer is valued at 4.00.

A few numbers

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Napoli is the team that has been waiting the longest for a draw in Serie A: 23 games (W21, L2), only Bochum (one) has collected fewer draws than the Azzurri (two) in the top five European leagues this season. The team that has scored the most header goals in the top five European championships in 2022/23 (Spalletti’s, 15) and the one that has conceded the most in Serie A, always with headers (Milan, 10), are facing each other.

Statistics and background

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It is the 150th match between Napoli and Milan in the league: the Rossoneri have won only two of the last 16 encounters in Serie A against the Azzurri (D5, L9), but the two victories have come in the last five matches. Pioli’s team have won both of their last two away matches against Napoli and only once have they achieved three consecutive wins at the Campania side, even in the period between ’48 and ’51.