Musetti-Munar prediction, Wimbledon: Lorenzo handicap -6.5 at 1.93

The first victory of his career at Wimbledon was a declaration to everyone: yes, Lorenzo Musetti is fine. As if he had come full circle: in the first round he beat in three sets (6-3 6-1 7-5) that Varillas who, in February, had started the very complicated period of the carrarino, between the South American clay (he defeated him in Buenos Aires) and the Sunshine Double (the Indian Wells-Miami duo). Musetti has recovered and now he doesn’t want to stop: the match against Jaume Munar is an opportunity to go further, to the third round of Wimbledon.

The prediction

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The number of matches won by Musetti this year on grass has therefore risen to five, against two defeats (against Tiafoe in Stuttgart and Rune at Queen’s). Confidence on grass grows from game to game. Before this year, Lorenzo had never won on this surface: four defeats out of four. He is a rookie from the meadows, as is Munar: the one in the first round against Isner was the second victory of his career on grass, against 10 defeats. Both successes came at Wimbledon. In short: the Spaniard is tough, but on this surface he has decidedly fewer weapons than Simone Tartarini’s pupil. So watch out for Musetti’s victory with a -6.5 handicap: the odds are 1.93 for NetBet and Novibet, 1.90 for Sisal.

Musetti-Munar shares

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But pay attention to the precedents: the Spaniard won the only match at ATP level, this year in Santiago de Chile. As mentioned, it was Musetti’s crisis period and in addition he played on clay, the Spaniard’s favorite surface. But there’s more: Lorenzo lost to Munar two more times, in the minor circuits, in 2019 in Florence and in 2021 in the final in Antalya. Even on those occasions, it was played on clay. All the main betting sites don’t seem impressed by the fact that the Spaniard has always beaten Lorenzo, so much so that the favors are all on the Italian’s side: Musetti’s victory is given at 1.14 by GoldBet, Better and Bet365. While the odds for Munar’s success are 6.00 for LeoVegas and PlanetWin, 5.50 for Betfair.