+++++ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK +++++
– GB
13:00 BoE, outcome and minutes of the monetary policy meeting
Council and monetary policy report
bank rate
FORECAST: 4.50%
previously: 4.25%
– U.S
14:30 Initial applications for unemployment benefits (week)
FORECAST: 245,000
previously: 242,000
14:30 producer prices April
FORECAST: +0.3% vs. mom
before: -0.5% vs. mom
Core rate (excluding food and energy)
FORECAST: +0.2% vs. mom
before: -0.1% vs. mom
+++++ OVERVIEW FUTURES / INDICES +++++
Current:
INDEX reading +/-
DAX future 15,996.00 +0.2%
E-Mini Future S&P 500 4,161.75 +0.2%
E-Mini Future Nsdq-100 13,433.50 +0.2%
Nikkei-225 29,096.00 -0.1%
Shanghai Composite 3,314.02 -0.2%
Hang Seng Index 19,648.59 -0.6%
+/- ticks
Bund futures 135.90 -5
Wednesday:
INDEX Close +/-
DAX 15,896.23 -0.4%
DAX future 15,972.00 -0.3%
XDAX 15,899.50 -0.3%
MDAX 27,365.61 +0.2%
TecDAX 3,233.30 -0.1%
EuroStoxx50 4,306.76 -0.4%
Stoxx50 4,018.36 -0.6%
Dow Jones 33,531.33 -0.1%
S&P 500 Index 4,137.64 +0.4%
Nasdaq Comp. 12,306.44 +1.0%
EUREX last +/- ticks
Bund future 135.95 +81
+++++ FINANCIAL MARKETS +++++
EUROPE
Outlook: Despite the turning point in the world of interest rates – the DAX is expected to remain little changed on Thursday. In the USA, the real interest rate at the short end is now positive for the first time in many years, after the most recent interest rate hike to 5 percent and the new inflation rate of 4.9 percent. “That should slow down the economy further,” said one market participant. There is potential for interest rate reductions if, in addition to the inflation rate, core inflation also falls significantly in the coming months. “Initially, however, the market will continue to rely on defensive growth stocks,” said the market participant. On Thursday the last major highlight of the reporting season and in the afternoon US producer prices are in focus. The Bank of England meets next to it.
Review: Market speculation about interest rate cuts by the Fed from the summer were misguided, it said with a view to inflation data from the USA. Therefore, the data were not supportive. Credit Agricole delivered significantly better quarterly data, the price jumped 5.0 percent. Vestas was praised for returning to profitability, up 3.7 percent. At Alstom, however, one had expected more and sent the shares 2.4 percent lower. Asos collapsed by a good 23 percent after weak business figures and a lowered outlook.
DAX/MDAX/TECDAX
A little easier – according to the numbers, Siemens Healthineers was the DAX loser with minus 5.7 percent. Things were going well in the core business, but the margin and sales suffered from the slump in demand for corona tests. In addition, the area of robot-assisted treatment of cardiovascular diseases will be stopped due to a lack of demand. According to Citigroup, Continental (+3.1%) EBIT was 20 percent above consensus. The data was also rated positively at Brenntag (+1.7%) – the outlook was also pleasing. The business figures of Heidelbergcement (-0.7%) exceeded expectations. However, one participant complained that the increased outlook only met the upper band of previous expectations. Eon were seen as generally unspectacular to slightly positive. The data came in above forecasts, but the outlook was only confirmed. The course fell by 1.6 percent. A long-term partnership with Sandoz was celebrated at Evotec (+12.8%).
XETRA AFTER EXCHANGE
The courses in after-hours trading on Wednesday have mostly changed little. The US stock exchanges had reacted inconsistently to the consumer price data, which had not been consistently convincing. Allianz shares were up 0.6 percent in the evening after the insurer announced a new share buyback program worth up to 1.5 billion euros. TAG Immobilien was up 0.7 percent after the news that the chairman of the supervisory board, Rolf Elgeti, will not stand for re-election at the upcoming annual general meeting and will be stepping down from the supervisory board. Suse reacted to the company’s profit warning with a minus of a good 6 percent.
USA – EQUITIES
Inconsistent – The reluctance to buy over the past few days came to an end for the time being on Wednesday. Because new inflation data had shown the hoped-for slowdown in inflation. However, observers criticized the stubbornly high core inflation and pointed out that the inflation rate was still well above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. In addition, other important data would be published in the coming weeks, which would also influence the Fed’s decision. And last but not least, the good location on the speak US job market rather speak against an interest rate pause or even a reduction in the summer, it said. Among individual stocks, Airbnb plummeted nearly 11 percent. On the one hand, the bookings of the online accommodation provider fell short of expectations despite the record level in the most recent quarter, on the other hand, the outlook was less optimistic. Rivian (+1.8%) reduced its quarterly loss more than expected and is also sticking to its full-year outlook. Electronic Arts’ figures were better than expected (-0.5%). In addition, the company was very confident in its outlook. However, market participants criticized the dependence on a few products such as the FIFA soccer game.
USA – BONDS
Term Yield Bp to VT Yield VT +/-Bp YTD
2 years 3.90 -12.5 4.02 -52.1
5 years 3.37 -12.6 3.50 -62.6
7 years 3.40 -9.9 3.50 -57.0
10 years 3.43 -8.5 3.52 -44.7
30 years 3.80 -4.3 3.84 -17.3
Hopes of a pause in interest rates or even a reduction in interest rates caused yields to fall more significantly.
+++++ FOREX MARKET +++++
FOREX last +/- % 0:00 Wed, 17:28 % YTD
EUR/USD 1.0978 -0.0% 1.0983 1.0977 +2.6%
EUR/JPY 147.36 -0.1% 147.50 147.71 +5.0%
EUR/CHF 0.9776 +0.1% 1.1240 0.9775 -1.2%
EUR/GBP 0.8698 -0.0% 0.8699 0.8697 -1.7%
USD/JPY 134.23 -0.1% 134.30 134.57 +2.4%
GBP/USD 1.2621 -0.0% 1.2624 1.2620 +4.4%
USD/CNH 6.9402 +0.0% 6.9374 6.9373 +0.2%
Bitcoin
BTC/USD 27,472.67 -0.2% 27,521.23 28,105.96 +65.5%
YTD based on the closing price of the previous day
Falling interest rate expectations weighed on the dollar, the dollar index lost 0.1 percent after intermittent increases – the euro rose accordingly.
+++++ RAW MATERIALS +++++
OIL / GAS
CRUDE OIL last VT settlem. +/- % +/- USD % YTD
WTI/Nymex 73.22 72.56 +0.9% +0.66 -8.7%
Brent/ICE 77.09 76.41 +0.9% +0.68 -8.5%
YTD based on the closing price of the previous day
Oil prices eased after the state’s Energy Information Administration reported a surprisingly sharp rise in US crude inventories last week. The barrel of light oil of the US variety WTI fell 1.6 percent to $ 72.56.
METALS
METALS last day before +/- % +/- USD % YTD
Gold (Spot) 2,031.62 2,029.75 +0.1% +1.87 +11.4%
Silver (Spot) 25.31 25.43 -0.5% -0.12 +5.6%
Platinum (Spot) 1,118.50 1,118.90 -0.0% -0.40 +4.7%
Copper Future 3.84 3.83 +0.0% +0.00 +0.5%
YTD based on the closing price of the previous day
The gold price did not benefit from the data in the long term. The prospect of a pause in interest rates if inflation continues to rise makes the precious metal theoretically attractive as an inflation hedge. Ultimately, however, the troy ounce was little changed at $2,032 after the price had risen the previous day.
+++++ REPORTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS DAY 5.30 PM +++++
ECONOMY CHINA
Inflation in China eased further in April. The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent year-on-year after rising 0.7 percent in March, the country’s statistics agency said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected inflation of 0.4 percent. It was the lowest reading since February 2021. Both food and non-food prices rose at a slower pace.
DOMESTIC POLITICS GERMANY
– At the refugee summit, the federal government promised the federal states an additional billion euros for the care of refugees. A long-term solution should be in place by November. Both sides agreed that asylum procedures and deportations should be faster.
– In view of the increased number of refugees, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has not ruled out border controls with other neighboring countries of Germany.
Great Britain
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 11, 2023 01:34 ET (05:34 GMT)