After Tesla had exceeded market expectations with the latest delivery figures, analysts were positive in rows. Morgan Stanley’s electric car market expert also found words of praise – especially for Tesla’s market share.
• Tesla’s market share has not decreased despite competition
• Morgan Stanley therefore with a positive assessment of the sales figures
• Price target remains unchanged
480,000 cars produced, 460,000 vehicles delivered: The key data that the electric car manufacturer Tesla recently presented for the past quarter convinced investors and analysts alike. Adam Jones, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, also sees the prospects for Tesla more positively in terms of delivery numbers.
Morgan Stanley analyst sees Tesla at the top for longer
His expectations for the number of Tesla vehicles likely to be sold in 2023 have risen after the strong quarterly development: from 1.8 million to 1.9 million cars. This emerges from a report by the analyst, excerpts of which were published on Twitter:
NEWS: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has increased his FY23 Tesla delivery estimate to 1.9M units from 1.82M previously.
“We continue to believe overall EV penetration will progress at a lower pace through 2030 with Tesla achieving a higher proportion of the market than expected.” pic.twitter.com/xTLzPCZxHB
– Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 3, 2023
Although increasing competition in the EV market has led to the expectation that Tesla would lose market share, the analyst sees the opposite development: The introduction of new electric cars from traditional manufacturers would be slow, and in some cases there would even be a throttling EV plans come. Jonas writes in his analysis that this may offer Tesla the chance to achieve “a higher” market share than expected in the longer term.
The expert predicts “higher for longer” for the electric car manufacturer led by the billionaire Elon Musk. Tesla will get a bigger piece of the pie – but that pie will be smaller by 2030 than many observers expect, the analyst said.
Earnings forecast raised
Against this background, Jonas also raised his profit expectations: Instead of the non-GAAP EPS of USD 3.03 originally promised, the Morgan Stanley expert now expects a value of USD 3.16 per share. For fiscal 2030, he raised EPS expectations to $11.97 from $11.92.
However, this new confidence does not change the average price target assessment, which remains unchanged at $250, below the current share price of $269.73 (closing price on July 11, 2023).
However, this is the analyst’s base case, with a bearish price target of $90. In the best case, the so-called bull case, the electric car manufacturer’s share certificate is even believed to be capable of jumping to 450 US dollars.
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