Ministry of Finance: ‘Less nitrogen reduction needed to achieve climate targets’

Farmers need to reduce their nitrogen emissions much less than previously thought to achieve the nature goals. If the Netherlands complies with all its climate agreements, this will yield an enormous bonus in nitrogen gains, which means that agriculture will have to reduce its emissions by a quarter to half. This is apparent from as yet unpublished calculations by the Ministry of Finance, the results of which are known at NRC†

In June, the cabinet presented a map showing the reduction percentages for agriculture per region: in some provinces, emissions must be (almost) halved and around nature reserves they must be reduced by 95 percent. According to the cabinet, these hard interventions are necessary to make three quarters of nitrogen-sensitive nature areas healthy again by 2030.

But the nitrogen gains resulting from achieving the climate targets are not included on the map. Only the reduction already measured has been calculated in this, not the future profit. The climate goals, laid down in the Climate Agreement and the coalition agreement, are intended to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. But if more Dutch people start driving electrically, coal-fired power stations are closed and factories use their harmful CO₂Reducing emissions means significantly less nitrogen emissions.

Nitrogen sensitive nature

Finance officials have calculated this ‘nitrogen bonus’ for the first time. During the last measurements, less than half of the nitrogen-sensitive nature in the Netherlands was below the critical deposition value (KDW), the limit for what is considered healthy nature. If the Netherlands achieves the climate targets, the percentage of healthy nature will grow significantly, without further nitrogen policy. Thanks to this bonus, the government can reduce the nitrogen target for agriculture by a quarter to half and three quarters of the nitrogen-sensitive nature will still be healthy by 2030.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Agriculture says he is not aware of the contents of the study. The Ministry of Finance speaks of “a theoretical model”, which is “not a policy advice or position”.

If the Netherlands achieves the climate goals, the percentage of healthy nature will grow significantly, without further nitrogen policy

The government’s approach does not focus on reducing nitrogen in places where the damage to nature is greatest; the task is spread over the entire country: every farmer has to reduce his own emissions a little. Posted last month NRC about another official study, which showed that by specifically buying out farmers who emit a lot of nitrogen close to nature reserves, the reduction target for the rest of the sector is reduced.

There is one important condition attached to the calculation of Finance: the cabinet must meet the climate targets. The Rutte IV coalition agreement states that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. At the end of last year, the Netherlands was behind schedule. The government is doing everything it can to achieve this goal, if necessary with additional measures. European agreements also force the Netherlands to work on the climate goals.

Boost for farmers

The Finance calculation is a boost for farmers who have shut down their land in recent weeks because they think the nitrogen plans are too rigorous. According to them, the emphasis is too much on reducing emissions in agriculture. According to TNO, agriculture is responsible for about 60 percent of the total nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands.

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Farmers are spared in the climate plans. When drawing up the Climate Agreement, in 2019, the Rutte III cabinet set down the goals for each sector. The energy supply and industry have the greatest challenges. The required contribution from agriculture is much smaller.

If the Finance calculations become policy, agriculture still has a big job ahead of it. It is unclear how it should be cleared. Buying out farmers has been difficult so far. More than a year and a half ago, the provinces started a buy-out scheme for farmers who emit a lot of nitrogen close to nature reserves, but not a single farmer has signed up for this yet – the term ends in September.