The failure of Javier Milei and its scaffolding in the parliamentary route of the “Bases Law”, opens a new round of speculation about what will be the next move of a president who came to power with anti-caste speechthe same one that strengthened the last weeks in open dispute with governors and parliamentarians who once could have been allies.
The possibility of a referendum is already on the table. Milei discounts popular support. But, on the one hand, the result is not binding. And on the other hand, there is the close example of Chiliwhere the society was from shoulder to shoulder in popular consultations to approve the reform of a new constitution. Both should be a warning to the president. If he fails at the polls in the face of growing social discontent endorsed by various surveys, and in direct connection with the adjustments to the pockets of the middle class, he will be in flagrant offside.
The president was obliged to negotiate to avoid that course. But faithful to his personality and campaign speech -which other LLA representatives emphasize, insists that his closest advisor sign up, Santiago Caputo-, he chose dynamite. The possibility of an agreement flew through the air and Milei now enters another narrative. A perhaps surprising one for Argentina, but one that is comparable in cases of other Latin American countries.
“Milei does not have governance conditions democratic because, even if it makes the best election in the world, it will have less than a third of the senate and less than a third of deputies, and very few possibilities of coalitionability,” anticipated the political analyst. Andrés Malamud last year in the middle of the campaign: the video of the interview on TN with Diego Seligman has gone viral in the last few hours.
“In front is the caste. And even if you choose a few, you will not reach two thirds. That means one of two: if he confronts Congress and he wants to impose himself, he can decide to close it as he did. Alberto Fujimori in Peru in 1992. If he confronts Congress and is surpassed by two-thirds of both chambers, Congress will remove him with impeachment as happened in Peru with Pedro Castillo,” predicted the professor from the University of Lisbon.
“Peru is the mirror of the Argentina that is to come. If Milei wins the elections, he does not have the conditions for governability because the institutions are restrictive. They are made like that, the Constitution is like that, the laws are like that, it will not have more than 16 senators, even if it gets 80% of the votes, it will not have more than 70 deputies out of 257, and in Argentina to govern you have to agree. And he broke all the bridges to agree. This country is not governed by a hyperminority, not democratically. Authoritatively, in a hyperminority, one is enough,” Malamud concluded.
In case of Alberto Fujimori in Peru it is the “successful” version of the self-coup (not the only one, Nicolás Maduro dissolved the National Assembly controlled by the opposition and installed a new one under his command in 2017). Until popularity abandoned him and he was imprisoned: the president, who governed the Latin American country throughout the 90s, dissolved the Peruvian Congress in 1992, arguing the need for economic reforms and the fight against terrorism.
He then established an authoritarian regime, “Fujimorismo”, which still survives, although he has not been able to return to power. However, he has participated in the fall of Pedro Castillopopular leftist leader who became acclaimed president in mid-2021: but was deposed in December 2022 by Congress when he had tried to dissolve it, cornered by justice, without the support of his own, and after some impeachment attempts .
In Argentina the closest precedent is that of Fernando de la Rua (1999-2001), who, emptied of power after Congress withdrew its support, resigned in the midst of massive protests and riots, and after failing to provide solutions to a deep economic and political crisis: a scenario that a sector of the Peronist opposition frequently agitates in the comparison, also alluding to the same messianic spirit exhibited then by the economy minister Sunday Cavallowhom Javier Milei venerates.
Finally, in Brazil, Congress has a history of political trials of leaders. Of Fernando Collor de Mello (1990-1992), who resigned before being dismissed and amid accusations of corruption, until Dilma Rousseffdeposed by the Brazilian Congress in 2016, in an overthrow that included the betrayal of her vice president Michel Temera ghost that the inner circle of the Argentine president frequently summons among their mistrust.
Luis Inácio Lula da Silva He also faced corruption investigations during his term, with parliamentary debates on purpose; and Jair Bolsonaro was hacked by impeachment attempts that did not materialize. A case similar to that of Donald Trump in the United States. Both, Bolsonaro and Trumpunaware of the results of the polls after suffering defeats in their re-election attempts, sought to take over Congress, which is why they are currently facing legal cases.
