Milan-Sanremo, the technical analysis: for Van Aert a single chainring with 52 teeth

The 114th edition of the Milano-Sanremo promises to be extremely interesting. In the group there are three points of reference: Van der Poel, Van Aert and Pogacar. But how can they win? And how can their opponents beat them? Let’s try to do a technical analysis. The first two have so far not received objectively positive responses from themselves. After a season in cross where they slaughtered each other, they still don’t seem at the top on the road. Pogacar, on the other hand, is in super condition but doesn’t have the course on his side. Even if Nibali proved in 2018 that the course becomes tame when you’re in great shape. The Slovenian on his Colnago V4RS will mount a 54-40 with 11-30, Enve 4.5 wheels, 28 Continental tubeless inflated to 4.4 and 4.2 atm. Van Aert, on the other hand, on his Sram-equipped Cervelo S5 adopts the 52-tooth single chainring with 11-28 sprocket set. The Classicissima, presumably, will come alive on the Cipressa. They are 5.6 km with an average gradient of 4.1% (234 meters in altitude): the record is set by Francesco Casagrande: 9’36” in 2001. Pantani in 1999 only took one second longer. The Slovenian phenomenon could attack here.

THE GREAT EX

—

“Surely he and Alaphilippe will want a tough race – explains Michele Bartoli, who has been a coach since 2008 after a great career on the road -. I expect them to make a very, very fast climb. The average power of the best should be around 6.5-6.7 watts/kg”. The problem is then the 9,100 meters that lead from Aregai to the Poggio crossroads, ten minutes of apnea. Yes, the Poggio: it’s 3.7 km at an average 3.7% gradient (136 meters in altitude), 4 hairpin bends and 6 bends. There are 9.2 km to go to the finish line, the hill is -5.5. The record belongs to Giorgio Furlan, 5’46” in 1994. Then Fondriest-Jalabert in 1995 in 5’49”. “Il Poggio – says Bartoli – can be divided into two parts. The first part will be done loud, at constant watts. We must also consider the fact that a wheel saves at least 40 watts. The difference is made above”. About 700 meters from the top where there are 200 meters at maximum gradient, 8%. There, if a runner has dynamite in his legs he can blow up the race”. Alaphilippe or Pogacar – continues Bartoli – to leave they will have to hold out for almost two minutes at 550 average watts with much higher peaks. Huge values”. Downhill with 23 bends and 7 hairpin bends. “He could still make the difference as Mohoric demonstrated last year.” That he will still use the dropper post. At 2.3 km from via Roma you return to the Aurelia. There the leading riders, if there is a small group, will look at each other for a second. That will be the moment in which Ganna, arriving very fast, will have to play his card. Pippo, on his Dogma F, mounted the 54-40 with 11-30 scale sprockets. Shimano C60 wheels, with Continental tubeless: 25” front at 4.8 atm, rear 28” at 5.3. This will be Peter Sagan’s last Sanremo. The Slovakian champion seemed tailor-made for the Classicissima, but he didn’t win even one. He, especially mentally, seems to be a bit worn out. But be careful because his DNA is that of a winner. If on the Poggio he clings to the first, in via Roma he becomes very dangerous. Peter, who rides with a Specialized SL7 (54-39 x 11-30) doesn’t use tubeless but Turbo Cotton tires inflated to 7.0-7.2. And he dreams of a triumph that would be sensational.