Milan, Maldini and Pioli in the balance in case of a flop season: the RedBird plans

They call it game, but go trust the labels. Football is difficult, harsh, ruthless: it doesn’t give discounts even to those who need it. Take Milan. On Saturday he arrived in La Spezia, a seaside city, hoping to ferry the week from one Champions League semi-final to another. Instead he caught a couple of rogue waves, lost and now seems to be in trouble like (almost) never before. He arrives at the most important match with Leao who is thinking about therapies, Giroud clearly far from 100% – in La Spezia he was already touching his calf from the warm-up – and none of the stars at their peak performance. The team seems tired and doesn’t have enough quality to play under the pace: bad combination. In this context, the two-three weeks are coming which will decide the season. Milan are two turning points away from a glorious year, as Pioli would say: fourth place and the Champions League final would bring balances back to the early 2000s. A collapse against Inter and a future in the Europa League, on the other hand, would make the season a clear disappointment. From almost everything to almost nothing, with the middle ground – out with Inter, in the next Champions League – as the most probable hypothesis.

The situation

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Orienting yourself in such a context is not easy. The certainty is that the next four, maybe five games will decide everything: Inter in the Champions League, then Sampdoria at home, Juve away and Verona at home. At least Sunday brought good news to Milanello. Roma’s draw in Bologna means that if Juve are excluded from the Champions League, Milan will depend on themselves: with nine points they would be at least fifth, ready to return to the big cup in the event of a black and white disqualification. In that case, the club’s balance sheet would be better than that assumed at the table: the revenues from the 2023-24 Champions League would be saved (Milan last season, eliminated in the group stage, collected 44 million in UEFA prizes) and everything suggests that the project could continue.

Scenario

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At the end of June, RedBird renewed with Maldini and Massara and, after the closing, signed a three-year contract with Pioli. Chosen in continuity with Elliott management, certified by a series of renewals with few precedents. From Bennacer to Tonali, from Giroud to Leao, Milan has trusted all of its key players, demonstrating that they believe in the ideas and men who led to the Scudetto. The millions from the next Champions League would thus serve to strengthen the team, to focus on two quality players, to continue a path that began in 2019 and was partially slowed down in this strange, crazy 2023.

Worst case scenario

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A bad impression tomorrow and an overtaking from Roma, with a slide in the Europa League, on the other hand, would open doubts about a project that has had its ups and downs this season. On the one hand, the semi-final of the Champions League goes beyond all expectations, because Milan certainly don’t have a squad for the European top 4. “The summer goal was to get through the first round,” said president Paolo Scaroni, not by chance, at Milan Football Week. On the other hand, the team has taken steps backwards. Kessie was missed very much and some players – Kalulu, Rebic – had an involution. The summer signings, De Ketelaere and Origi above all, gave little or nothing. The loss of the millions from the Champions League – the Europa League takes away prestige, international visibility and at least 35 million – would force us to redefine the summer plans on the market. And he would call RedBird, from Gerry Cardinale down, to considerations on Maldini, Massara, Pioli and all the key men of this management.

The market

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Fans on social media focus on the coach – an old classic – and Pioli certainly now seems to be in trouble pushing a team that has lost some of its distinctive features. Other questions, however, make their way to the horizon. The market, for example. Cardinale has repeatedly spoken of data as a great key to winning choices and certainly RedBird loves young players, with reduced salary, not necessarily ready immediately but with quality. Ideas compatible with the choices of Maldini and Massara? It is to be understood. The top management of Milan, including the property, have always appreciated Pioli, publicly and privately. Yesterday Scaroni also spoke about it: “I’m a great admirer of Pioli, Maldini and Massara because they embody the Milan style: we behave like gentlemen by following the rules. Pioli confirmed? He has a contract until 2025. These are technical decisions that I don’t make but a priori I don’t see any problem”.

The rose will change

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Several problems, however, are noted in the team. Milan already knows that several players will no longer wear AC Milan from July: Tatarusanu, Mirante, Dest, Bakayoko, Ibrahimovic. They seriously risk being elsewhere Ballo-Touré, Vranckx, Adli, Rebic, perhaps even Messias and Origi. Milan will certainly be different, less numerous (it’s unlikely there are still 30 players) and stronger in the second lines. The design of the future can be seen and is one of the most interesting in Italy in terms of economic solidity, ambition and potential. It remains to be understood who will be there and who won’t: the derby, Rome, Verona, a handful of judges, some managers and a Cardinal decide.