Milan in the round of 16 of the Champions League with two victories. Four points are enough only if …

All is not lost, luckily for Milan. On the contrary: nothing has been lost, not even the theoretical possibility of closing the Champions League group E in first place. The Rossoneri have their own destiny in their hands as regards the real goal, that is to qualify for the round of 16. Two days from the end, however, they can still occupy all the seats of the group, including the fourth which would mean complete exit from Europe.

With 2 wins

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Let’s analyze case by case and start with the one most favorable to Pioli’s team. With two wins against Dinamo Zagreb (25 October in Croatia) and Salzburg (2 November in Austria), the next round is certain. At that point, the first place would depend on Chelsea: if the Blues win at least three more points, they certainly close in the lead, having favorable direct clashes with the Rossoneri.

With a win and a draw

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If the win is against Salzburg, AC Milan qualify if Chelsea lose both of their games, or if Salzburg do not beat Chelsea. If the victory is against Dinamo, Milan qualified if Salzburg loses to Chelsea, Milan third if Salzburg beats Chelsea and the Blues do not lose against Dinamo, while if the Austrians draw with Chelsea the overall goal difference comes into play.

With 2 draws

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Milan third only if Dinamo Zagreb don’t win in London. Otherwise the Rossoneri are last.

With a draw and a defeat

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If the tie is against Dinamo, the Rossoneri close in third place only if the Croatians lose in London. If, on the other hand, the tie is with Salzburg, they are last.

With 2 defeats

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Milan last in the group and outside of Europe.