The number of inhabitants of the Netherlands grew rapidly in the first nine months of this year: 191,000 people joined. That is more than twice as much as in the same period last year, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reported on Thursday. The Netherlands now has almost 17.8 million inhabitants, and Statistics Netherlands expects this to be over twenty million by 2070.
1 Where is the growth coming from this year?
Not from the ‘natural increase’ as CBS calls it: fewer children were born in the past nine months, and more people died than last year.
When women have children depends on many different factors, says chief sociologist Tanja Traag of Statistics Netherlands. That makes forecasting difficult. Take last year’s birth peak, in the midst of the corona pandemic. “In those months, the focus was on being at home, working from home, and on family. People were focused on each other,” says Traag. “Apparently that led to the thought: let’s not postpone that desire to have children any longer.” In other countries – Spain, France – a dip can be seen. The gloomy economic outlook may have been the deciding factor there. “People postpone their wish to have children if they find their life too uncertain. That argument can now play a role in the Netherlands.”
When it comes to mortality, more people than expected have been dying for a long time. The exact reason for this is still unclear, says Traag. There are probably several reasons for this. “In 2020 and 2021 we saw huge peaks due to corona. And there are indications that delayed care is a factor. Cancer diagnoses that were missed, neglected heart complaints, people who did not go to the doctor for a long time.”
The population growth observed by Statistics Netherlands is mainly due to the number of immigrants. Nearly 318 thousand people settled in the Netherlands in the past nine months. Because almost 130 thousand people left, more than 188 thousand inhabitants were added on balance. More than twice as many as last year.
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2 Where do the migrants come from?
A large number from Ukraine: more than 97 thousand people have fled to the Netherlands. There was a peak in the first months after the Russian invasion in particular, although 18 thousand Ukrainians have also been registered with Dutch municipalities in the past three months. Nearly 64 thousand people come from countries such as India, Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan.
3 Where do the migrants settle?
Newcomers mainly move to the (big) cities, learns a report that the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) published last summer. Migrants from Western Europe have a strong preference for The Hague, Rotterdam and especially Amsterdam – probably because there are many jobs and educational institutions here. Other college towns are also in demand; for example, many German and Belgian students come to Maastricht.
Rotterdam is the most popular residential destination for migrants from Suriname, the Netherlands Antilles and Indonesia, followed by Amsterdam and The Hague. Many young people from this group come to the Netherlands for training. “Many Surinamese (who came there from Amsterdam) live in Almere, making the city attractive for newcomers from Suriname.”
Migrants from Eastern Europe also mainly end up in the three major cities, with The Hague as their favorite. However, between 2012 and 2019, more and more of these migrants moved to the smaller municipalities in the Randstad, such as Zeewolde and Westland, and in municipalities in North Brabant and Limburg. According to the PBL, this is because “many of these immigrants work in agriculture, horticulture, logistics or construction.”
Will the recent newcomers settle more or less in the cities? That is impossible to say, mails PBL researcher Dorien Manting: “That depends on many different factors, such as developments in the economy and (local) employment, as well as developments in the world around us.” For example, it is unclear what will happen to the refugees from Ukraine, says Manting: “We do not yet know whether Ukrainian family members will move in more often in the future with people who already live here or whether more people will return to Ukraine.”
4 Where should all those people live?
In the short term, vacant buildings must be made suitable for temporary habitation, says Chief Government Architect Francesco Veenstra: “A good example is the Koepelgevangenis in Breda, where Ukrainians have been housed after a limited architectural intervention.” According to him, municipalities and the national government own hundreds of unused buildings, which can be made habitable relatively quickly and cheaply. “Then you have a housing stock to absorb peaks. For asylum seekers or foreign students and also for people who have just been divorced and cannot find a home.”
In the long term, new construction should provide a solution; the cabinet wants 1 million new homes by 2030. “The question is where and how,” emphasizes Veenstra. Because the sea level is rising and the bottom is subsiding due to desiccation. “Suppose you build a lot of houses in Rotterdam, then this city will become even more attractive. Then you have to build even more in an area that is already low.” Then it might be better to start building in the Arnhem-Nijmegen region, he says. “But is there enough work there? Or are you building a fast train connection between Nijmegen and Rotterdam?”