The result took even the Government itself by surprise. With 96 of the tables counted, the Unión por la Patria candidate, Sergio Massa, won with 36.56 percent of the votes against Javier Milei, who in the previous one appeared as the great favorite but was stuck at 30.05 points, just one more than what he obtained in the PASO. Third, and already out of the race for the November runoff, she was Patricia Bullrich with 23.85 percent, in what could be considered almost a death certificate for Together for Change, the party founded by Mauricio Macri. In turn, the Peronist from Córdoba Juan Schiaretti was fourth with 6.83 points and Myriam Bregman, from the Left and Workers Front, obtained 2.69.
In Massa’s bunker everything was euphoria. In his speech, the Tigrense called for a government of national unity to differentiate himself from Milei’s confrontational speech. He asked for the vote of the radicals, of “Myriam” and “Juan” – for Bregman and Schiaretti– and also sought to fish in Bullrich’s electorate by appealing to the security discourse. “The crack died and a new stage begins,” she said. He believes that the six-point advantage he gained is important for the second round.
No survey – except that of AtlasIntel, published by CNN – could anticipate the unexpected comeback of the Minister of Economy, who closed his campaign fighting against the rise of the parallel dollar, which days ago pierced 1000 pesos but could finally be contained at the edge of the choice. Massa recalled the advice of Néstor Kirchner, who said that you can win at the polls with inflation, also with corruption scandals, but never with the dollar rising.. In parallel, the so-called “small plan” of distributing funds among workers, retirees and beneficiaries of social plans also seemed to have an effect. But what prevailed for Massa to win was, according to the analysis of his strategists, the fear of Milei.
What about the La Libertad Avanza candidate is striking. From being the surprise of the primaries, it went to an unexpected second place in the general elections. The centrality that it had in recent weeks exposed its politically incorrect agenda – defense of the military dictatorship, endorsement of organ trafficking, carrying weapons or the end of public education as it is known today, among other issues – and seems to have paralyzed its ascent. It remains to be seen, however, how Juntos voters will play in the runoff. Milei’s team explains that it is difficult for this electorate to elect Massa. The libertarian’s harsh disagreements with Bullrich, whom he accused of being a “bomb-thrower,” will be archived. In that sense, they point out a definition of it on the night of defeat: “The country must abandon populism if it wants to grow.” In addition, the seduction operation with Mauricio Macri, whom Milei intends to name as a “super ambassador” in his eventual government, can also serve as bait. Is the former president changing sides?
In his speech, Milei emphasized that “two thirds of Argentines voted for change”, congratulated the winners of Together for Change and proposed making a “clean slate and shuffling again.” He goes for those voters.
Bullrich is the biggest fiasco of these elections. Despite having won the internship against Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in August, he was never able to stand up to the appearance of Milei, who defined her as his “second brand.” The wild fight with Larreta meant that his votes were not automatically transferred to her, something that the late incorporation of the Buenos Aires mayor as Bullrich’s possible chief of staff did not manage to reverse. Macri’s ignoring and his flirting with Milei ended up dynamiting the Juntos campaign, whose survival as a political force is now in doubt. Among the bills that appear after the defeat, the veto on Schiaretti’s incorporation into the space stands out: Larreta proposed it, Macri and Bullrich did not want it and the Córdoba player got 7 points, which are what JxC lacked.
In the province of Buenos Aires, the electoral bastion of the ruling party, the governor Axel Kicillof He achieved re-election with a large 44.82 percent against 26.68 for the Juntos candidate, Néstor Grindetti, of Juntos, and 24.60 for the Milei candidate, Carolina Píparo. The fact that the yacht scandal involving Insaurralde – the former chief of staff of the government – had no impact on the result was celebrated in the Unión por la Patria bunker. There was fear before the election about the possible consequences of that affair, which Patricia Bullrich made fun of at the close of her campaign in Lomas de zamora, the tourist municipality of Marbella. With the triumph of Kicillof, Cristina Kirchner’s political godson, the Province becomes plan B for Kirchnerism if Massa fails to win in the runoff. The former president and her people will take refuge there if Milei comes to power.
In Buenos Aires territory, Jorge Macri He won without problems and gave the only joy of the day to JxC. The cousin of the former president obtained 49.54 percent of the votes against 32.21 for the ruling party Leandro Santoro and only 13.94 for Ramiro Marra, perhaps the weakest candidate of La Libertad Avanza. However, it was not enough for Macri to avoid the second round – for that he needed 50 points – although he appears as the favorite for November 19. His cousin Mauricio, who pushed him to move to the City, continues to retain a share of power in that territory.
Finally, we must record a worrying statistic: 40 years after having recovered democracy, this time only 77 percent of the voters voted, a number even lower than 80 percent of the 2019 presidential elections. As if citizens did not understand the importance of what is at stake. Furthermore, it is in this climate of rejection of politics that, not by chance, an anti-system candidate with a chance of becoming President emerges. There are four weeks left for the November 19 ballot, an eternity in Argentina. Anything can happen.
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