Marathon record: Busemann over the two-hour mark – “Kipchoge is at the limit”

After Eliud Kipchoge’s new world record at the Berlin marathon, the two-hour mark is approaching. ARD expert Frank Busemann gives his assessment.

At the Berlin Marathon, Eliud Kipchoge put his announcement into action. The long-distance runner improved his previous record by 30 seconds. But the Kenyan’s dominance gives hope for more. When does the magic mark of two hours fall? Sports show expert Frank Busemann gives his assessment.

Eliud Kipchoge is in a class of his own. The 37-year-old long-distance runner proved that again on Sunday.

Even before the race, the Kenyan had hoped to set a new personal best. In the end, Kipchoge undercut his best from 2018 by 30 seconds. With a big smile, the 37-year-old crossed the finish line in 2:01:09 hours – a world record.

Already cracked the two-hour mark under laboratory conditions

Could Kipchoge break the two-hour mark next? Sports show expert Frank Busemann strongly doubts it: “I don’t think it will fall soon. Kipchoge is not getting any younger, time is against him”says the former track and field athlete.

Under special conditions, Kipchoge has already proven that he can run the 42.195 kilometers in under two hours. In the lab run in 2019, the Kenyan ran the full distance in just 1:59:40. However, due to the lack of competitive conditions, this performance was not considered an official world record.

Performance in Berlin is not a sure-fire success

However, a number of favorable factors also came together in Berlin. “Yesterday the conditions were ideal again. A very flat track, good temperatures, little wind”, according to Busemann. Extrapolated, Kipchoge is missing a good 1.7 seconds per kilometer to reach the fabulous value. “A lot”as the expert diagnoses: “Kipchoge is at the limit, every second really hurts.”

According to Busemann, the Kenyan is 37 years old “in the prime of its time”. Nevertheless, according to the expert, the necessary increase should be too much: “It won’t get any easier, biology won’t stop at him either.”

Material as a limiting factor

For Germany’s Sportsman of the Year 1996, there is no question that the two-hour mark will be undercut in one day. “It will happen eventually.”

But for Busemann it takes more than an athlete of the century. The equipment also plays a role: “The material is a very important factor. Development is always ongoing and that is also a crucial point.”

Here, too, the sports show expert sees the development “first maxed out”: “Even the evolution of shoes takes time. We have experienced quantum leaps in recent years. I don’t know where this will lead to.” Busemann estimates that the brand will be around for a few more years: “I don’t think anyone who can run in under two hours will come out in the next three to four years.”