The French President, Emmanuel Macron, played with fire by promoting an unpopular pension reform in the midst of an energy and inflation crisis. And it has ended up burning. The centrist leader and the government of the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, come out very worn after two months of a intense social pulse with the unions.
A considerable part of French society boils with indignation, even more after the approval with a decree of the unpopular increase in the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years (with 42 or 43 years of contributions to receive a full pension). In addition, the tension was accentuated in the National Assembly. In the lower house, the difficulty of reaching agreements in a country until now accustomed to absolute majorities was evident. The room for maneuver for Macron is narrow if he wants to regain the initiative. Nor will it be easy for him to heal the wounds with the unions and those sectors of the population that feel underappreciated.
The two motions of censure debated on Monday in Parliament did not reach the threshold of an absolute majority. One of them, however, stayed behind. only nine votes to force the resignation of the Borne Executive and knock down the increase in the minimum retirement age, approved four days earlier through the controversial article 49.3 of the Constitution. Since 1990, a censorship text had not been so close to achieving approval, and this type of initiative is very often presented in France.
“We have the right to use the word victory& rdquor ;, Prime Minister Borne assured on Tuesday morning in a meeting at the Élysée. But it is a Pyrrhic triumph. To the point that many wonder if it was worth assuming such wear and tear for a reform that will serve to save some 10,000 million euros before 2030. 68% of the French want the resignation of the current governmentaccording to a recent survey by the Elabe institute for the chain bfm tv. “We are all weakened. The president, the executive and the majority. A change of government would only make sense if it is accompanied by a far-reaching political response”, acknowledged the deputy Gilles Le Gendre, one of the heavyweights of macronism in the Assembly.
Will Borne continue at Matignon?
And now that? How Macron can overcome the situation? The president will give on Wednesday at noon a interview for the two main television networks French. Since October, she has not dedicated herself to a communicative exercise of this style on matters of internal politics. Practically, the only achievement for the president in this fight for pensions has been that thanks to his media discretion —almost all the general strikes coincided with a trip abroad— he has allowed Borne to monopolize a good part of the wear and tear. But this did not prevent the popularity of the head of state from falling to its lowest levels since the revolt of the yellow vests.
Despite the expectation generated by this interview, Elysee sources indicated that Macron will not announce a change of government, nor the call for early legislative elections nor a referendum on pension reform. Borne is very weak —some voices even criticize her within Macronism—, but the most likely option is for her to continue leading Matignon. At least in the short term.
Except for a surprise, he will not withdraw the pension reform either. Will there be big announcements? this Wednesday? Many fear not. “If he does a kind of verbal 49.3 again and goes on television to say I don’t care about your opinion, the demonstrations on Thursday will be even stronger,” warned the left-wing deputy Alexis Corbière, referring to the new general strike, the seventh in the last two months.
The absence of elections, a double-edged sword
The president decided to push this unpopular measure at this time —in the midst of the energy and inflation crisis and war in Ukraine— less than a year having passed since the presidential elections. An unwritten law of French politics says that the most painful measures must be approved early in the mandate. This limits the electoral cost.
However, the fact that Macron does not face the toll of the polls in the short term —The next elections will not take place until the European elections in 2024 and the centrist leader will not be able to run in 2027 due to the constitutional limitation of two terms— could be a double-edged sword. There is a risk of some inaction on the part of the president.
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The upcoming laws on the legislative agenda will hardly serve to calm the indignation. On the one hand, a new immigration law, that will facilitate the expulsion of migrants who commit crimes and will create a special residence permit for foreigners who work in professions with a shortage of labor. On the other, a labor reform that will somewhat limit the mechanisms for terminating the labor contracts of those over 55 years of age, in addition to establishing experimentally in some companies the four day week (although without a decrease in legal working time, currently 35 hours per week).
“He free money is over& rdquor ;, recalled this Monday the Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, in one of the most listened to radio morning shows. A commitment to reduce the deficit and public spending, together with a fiscal policy based on lowering taxes on companies, which limits Macron’s ability to respond to outrage. And put out the fire generated by the pension reform.