Macron will have a meeting with Putin today and will travel to Kiev on Tuesday for consultations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The mere fact that Macron is prioritizing talks with Putin is a gesture to the Russian president that he is taking his demands seriously. Until now, only Zelensky was able to welcome a whole procession of Western representatives.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov called the meeting between the two leaders “extremely important,” although he said he did not expect a breakthrough immediately. According to him, the issue is too complex for that. But he did point out that Macron had announced that he will “come up with ideas to ease tension.”
Invasion
The Western countries fear that the troops that Russia has gathered along the border with Ukraine, currently more than 125,000 strong, are about to invade the country. Russia denies that it has plans for an invasion, but does demand that NATO make far-reaching concessions. It wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. Furthermore, the alliance must withdraw its troops and weapons from the Eastern European countries.
Before leaving for Moscow, Macron said he was hopeful that he would be able to avoid a military conflict. Opposite Le Journal de Dimanche he said that Ukraine is not being targeted by Russia, but that Moscow is about “clarifying the rules” between Russia on the one hand and NATO and the European Union on the other.
Macron said Russia has a right to raise its own security concerns. In doing so, he distanced himself from the interpretation of the US government, which sees the Russian complaints about the threat from NATO and Kiev primarily as an excuse for a possible military operation against Ukraine.
‘new order’
Macron said he sees it as his job to find a “historic solution” to the issue of European security. In his view, it is high time to take steps towards a ‘new order’ based on the ‘cardinal principle of the sovereign equality of countries’.
With the latter he apparently tried to reassure Ukraine and the Eastern European countries that opted for NATO after the break-up of the Eastern bloc. The US and NATO keep insisting that these countries are responsible for their own security. That is why they do not want to give Russia a guarantee that Ukraine will never join the alliance, even though it is extremely unlikely that it will.
With his mediation attempt, Macron wants to show that Europe must stand up for its own security and not leave the initiative to the United States. But that is precisely what makes the Eastern European countries hesitant: they rely more on the US when it comes to their security.
Joe Biden
Macron had a telephone conversation with US President Joe Biden before his departure to Moscow, apparently to discuss his mediation attempt in Moscow. Still, the Eastern European countries fear that Macron will take Putin too far in his conversation with the Russian leader. In a telephone conversation with Macron, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas urged Macron to show Putin that the Western countries are steadfast.
France had previously mediated between Russia and Georgia after Russian troops invaded the country in 2008. Then French President Nicolas Sarkozy managed to bring about a ceasefire, even though Moscow had in fact achieved its military goals by then.
After his visit to Zelensky, Macron will travel to Berlin on Tuesday for summits with Poland and Germany on the outcome of his mission to Moscow and Kiev.