First the corona pandemic and then the Russian attack on Ukraine: The global logistics chains have been massively disrupted for a long time – and reveal a dark side of globalization.
The logistics experts at the consulting firm PwC see the first signs of a reversal in economic globalization after the Russian attack on Ukraine. As an indication, they consider that in the first half of 2022, Chinese logistics companies were only involved in 15 percent of all global takeovers and mergers. That is the lowest level in ten years. According to the PwC forecast, this trend could continue.
“Tendencies towards deglobalization can already be observed,” says PwC partner André Wortmann. “There is also a risk that a counterweight to the Western countries could form under Chinese and Russian leadership. As a result, Western transport and logistics companies could become more reluctant when it comes to deals or investments in China.”
A study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and its global strategy consultancy Strategy& states that the decline in transaction activities with Chinese participation is certainly also due to the ongoing Covid 19 crisis in China. However, it also speaks of “concerns about a possible formation of the Eastern Bloc under Chinese and Russian leadership”.
Based on interviews with “experts and leading personalities from business and politics”, against the background of the Ukraine war, an accelerated trend towards deglobalization is currently seen as the most likely scenario. This is based on the assumption of a protracted war, which is likely to lead to ongoing sanctions against Russia, ongoing economic uncertainty and restricted trade activities.
Meanwhile, according to PwC, the global concentration wave in the logistics and transport industry has weakened slightly in the first half of 2022 after the record 2021. According to the study, a total of 129 transactions with a total value of almost 126 billion US dollars were announced in this sector worldwide between January and June. According to PwC, in 2021 there were 322 transactions worldwide with a total value of around 219 billion dollars.
Contrary to the PwC forecast from the beginning of the year, the PwC experts explain that the previous year’s trend has cooled off primarily with the consequences of the war. “This development is mainly due to the general uncertainty, which was increased by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting consequences such as skyrocketing energy prices, high personnel costs and disrupted supply chains,” said PwC logistics expert Ingo Bauer.(dpa)