Is not wrong Alberto Fernandez when he speaks of “self-constructed and psychological inflation”, although he does stray by assuming that the person most affected by the mental illness to which he alludes is the “small merchant” who insists on increasing the prices of the goods he sells just in case. The truth is that a good part of the political class, especially that made up of Peronism, suffers from an extremely virulent variant of the evil that it has detected. For reasons that could be described as structural, its members have become accustomed to thinking and act as if the national government, In addition to the provincial and municipal funds, they had much more money than what the accountants say and that it is their duty to spend it.
Pointing out that this is not the case, that it would be convenient to understand that Argentina is far from being a rich country and that therefore money must be used carefully, seems insulting to them, a way of thinking that is typical of “neoliberals” and other traitors to the national essences, hence the general will to ignore those despicable mathematical limits that obsess the “orthodox”. The main weapon of such characters in the fight against concrete reality is the little machine that they put into high gear after persuading themselves that multiplying the money supply will not have negative consequences. From his point of view, monetarism is a vile heresy.
This strange phenomenon has historical roots. It’s been more than a century, sparsely populated Argentina prospered as “the granary of the world.” Over time, its rulers became accustomed to appropriating a slice of the wealth thus generated in the name of nineteenth-century versions of economic development and, halfheartedly, social justice. Since then, they have taken it for granted that it would be up to the countryside to subsidize infant industry until it was internationally competitive – it never would be – and other good activities that, in their opinion, will contribute to national cohesion.
Although at this point no one believes that “a good harvest” would be more than enough to solve all the current problems that concern politicians, trade unionists and sector propagandists, the same mentality persists. By the way, few days go by without some notable assuring us that Vaca Muerta, lithium or another natural resource will serve to finance not only the assistance programs that in their opinion the population deserves, but also many other undertakings that they believe to be desirable and that, well managed, could catapult Argentina to a privileged place in the world hierarchy.
And the “human capital”? It has long been indisputable that the richest societies depend far more on the cultivated and applied intelligence of their inhabitants than on the products of their prairies, mines, or oil deposits. Switzerland, Japan, Germany, the Scandinavian countries are naturally poor according to the standards instinctively claimed by the national political elites, but they are not because they have managed to make good use of the most valuable resource of all: the human brain. It is for this reason that today Apple, Alphabet (owner of Google), Amazon and their relatives far outweigh the industrial behemoths that once topped the corporate league tables, and that the relative value of intelligence is projected to continue to rise at a hellish rate in the coming years.
Unfortunately for many people, the populist wing of the political class, and the rest of the country, are in for an icy reality check. Hyperinflation is just around the corner. In other latitudes, an annual rate of 8.4 percent it would be considered so dangerous that it would justify a brutal financial tightening even when those who order it know that it would be followed by an exasperating and politically costly recession.
Here, the fact that the monthly rate has reached that level in April and that it will in all probability be in double digits in May poses a challenge to the Kirchnerists that they are not in a position to overcome. They know that if they do what is objectively necessary, they could unleash a popular rebellion of unmanageable proportions, and that if they refuse to do so they will risk facing elections in the midst of a hyperinflationary conflagration. As much as they try to attribute what is already happening to the usual enemies, Mauricio Macri, the International Monetary Fund and, for some, the capitalist system that in other parts of the world has drastically reduced ancestral poverty, it will not be easy for them to avoid the “self-constructed” trap that they have set for themselves.
As often happens in circumstances like these, those who caused the disaster are more interested in their own personal future than in that of others. Sergio Massa has not yet abandoned a presidential dream that could only materialize if the candidates of Together for Change irreparably discredited themselves by attacking each other with large ammunition, and if Javier Milei committed harakiri proposing something so unusually grotesque that even his most fanatical supporters would choose to turn their backs on him. Massa is confident that the frenetic activism that is his specialty will end up convincing the majority that, despite the catastrophic failure of his term as Economy Minister, he remains the only politician capable of maintaining a minimum of order.
For his part, Alberto prays that he be given to emulate Macri surviving until the last day of the four-year period that the electorate regulated. And Christina? It would seem that she wanted to completely disassociate herself from the government she invented and continue to reign as the spiritual leader of what is left of Kirchnerism which, needless to say, will try to sabotage the eventual efforts of those who succeed her in power to prevent the country from definitively sinking into storm ahead. Be that as it may, it would not be too surprising if Cristina was soon forced to choose between being sentenced to years in prison, perhaps at home, and exile in a country willing to welcome her that is reluctant to accede to extradition requests from foreign politicians. in a hurry.
To begin to recover, Argentina will have to be cured of the “psychological” disease, or rather, cultural, that was diagnosed by Alberto. Unless it frees itself from the inflationary mentality that reflects the congenital propensity to overvalue material resources and disregard the assumptions for the educational training of its inhabitants, there will be no chance that, once the current tumultuous phase of the eternal economic crisis is over, , managed to be much more than a huge shanty town with some developed enclaves ruled mostly by corrupt. Too bad for those fascinated by the possibilities offered by oil, natural gas, lithium and other minerals, in addition to agricultural products, concentrating on them would only serve to perpetuate the corporate order, not to say parasitic, which in their opinion many equals normal.
If the current situation in the country has taught us anything, it is that having such resources can be detrimental. Believing that ultimately they matter much more than culture, in the anthropological sense of the word, and acting accordingly, has led to the degeneration of Argentina into a kind of financial black hole. In the capitals of the world, no one thinks of speculating about the hypothetical irruption of “powerful Argentina” from Peronist fantasies. Rather, what worries them is the international impact of the implosion that some see drawing near. What will happen, they ask, if 90 percent of the population falls below the poverty line and, after a brief interval of reformist rule, a wildly populist dictatorship emerges, trying to isolate itself from the rest of the planet to live exclusively on yours?
Watching this unedifying spectacle are the Americans and, of course, the Chinese who are more than willing to take advantage of other people’s difficulties to expand their growing political-commercial empire. Although the rivalry between the reigning superpower and the one determined to dethrone it offers opportunities to countries like Argentina that need help, the fact that, despite its many problems, the United States is a democracy and China an iron dictatorship, accustomed to trampling on human rights of those who are encouraged to disagree with the official story and who barely pretend to feel respect for those who do not share their own cultural traditions, should influence the decisions of those in charge of national foreign policy. All in all, if there is something from China that would be worth importing, it is its educational modality, which is much more meritocratic than the North American one and which has made a fundamental contribution to the ultra-rapid economic development that, in a very short period of time, has completely changed the geopolitical map of the world. If Argentine popular culture incorporated attitudes similar to those prevalent in China when it comes to education, the country could very soon get out of the pit into which it has fallen. Otherwise, the future will be black.
