Sunday’s local and regional elections are seen in Spain as an important indicator of the national polls in December, say political scientists Yeison García López and Victoria Muñoz. Five questions and answers.
1 Why are these elections important?
The Spaniards will elect new representatives on Sunday in all 8,112 municipalities and in twelve of the seventeen autonomous regions “But these elections are also seen as a kind of indicator for the national elections in December,” explains Victoria Muñoz, affiliated with the Autonomous University of Barcelona. . The big question then is: can Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez form a government again? That is by no means certain: his left-wing PSOE and the conservative people’s party Partido Popular (PP) are leading in the polls, and are expected to need both coalition partners to get a majority.
On Sunday, therefore, attention will be focused on the smaller parties. Muñoz: “In addition, there are several parties in the political spectrum that are going to disappear, such as Ciudadanos.” The liberal-right Ciudadanos – a Catalan party that strongly opposes independence – did very well nationally and had the ambition to replace the PP in the political field. The party received almost 16 percent of the vote in 2019. Corruption scandals are likely to kill the party.
“But one of the ruling parties is also going to have a very hard time,” says García. He is referring to the Unidas Podemos party, which co-rules in Sánchez’s coalition government.
2 What themes are playing locally?
That differs per region. Safety is an important theme in Barcelona. Crime has risen enormously in the past year, especially street robberies, which are increasingly accompanied by violence. There are also regular confrontations between residents, squatters and the local police. Recently, many properties have been occupied by squatters, and critics say the law does not adequately protect homeowners. Muñoz: “We also have to look at how the independence movement is going to do, not only in Catalonia, but also in the Basque Country.”
Housing shortage is a major problem in Madrid. Many houses are unaffordable for the average Madrilene, which means that adults often still have to live with roommates in order to pay the rent.
In some areas in the north of Spain, however, there is an exodus. Young people flock to the larger cities to study and work, and the elderly are left alone. Drought and climate change are also important topics.
3 How do the Spaniards view Prime Minister Sánchez’s performance?
At first glance, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has done well. For example, he has increased the minimum wage and unemployment has fallen to the same level as before the economic crisis of 2008. He also released more than 2 billion euros to tackle the drought and introduced a billion-dollar support package to absorb the blows of inflation. .
Still, not everyone is happy with Sanchez. For example, he is blamed for the harsh and chaotic action in the Spanish enclave of Melilla, where 23 African migrants died last summer when they tried to climb the border fence due to violence by both the Spanish and the Moroccan police. The interior minister initially denied that violence was being used. From an investigation by Lighthouse Reports and the Spanish newspaper El País turns out the opposite. The opposition demanded the minister’s resignation, but the government remained firm.
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The U-turn of the Spanish government on Western Sahara has also received a lot of criticism. Madrid now supports Morocco, which claims the area. In return, Morocco monitors the borders with the Spanish cities of Melilla and Ceuta more strictly. The opposition and many Spaniards accuse Sánchez of bowing to the Moroccan king.
Because of these mixed reviews, things could go either way for the Sánchez government. “Whether Sánchez is strong enough for the next general election depends on whether the other political forces on his left are strong enough to revive that left-wing government,” said Yeison García.
4 What about other parties?
A striking newcomer to the national elections could be Sumar, the new left-wing citizen movement of Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz Pérez. It does not participate in the regional and local elections on Sunday, but displaces the far-right party VOX with 12.5 percent in the national polls from third place, behind the PSOE and the PP. Unidas Podemos, just like VOX, would not get further than about 8 percent.
The two major parties PSOE and PP are fairly evenly matched. If national elections were to take place on Sunday, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, with 29 percent of the vote, would remain slightly larger than Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP, which would take more than 27 percent. The right-wing conservative PP is not experiencing a smooth campaign: the new party leader Feijóo is found colorless by the rank and file, and various party celebrities are embroiled in corruption scandals or internal power struggles.
5 Why are the smaller parties not doing well?
The smaller parties on the left and on the right mainly suffer from internal rumblings, infighting and a few scandals. For example, Podemos suffers from the arrival of the ‘citizen movement’ Sumar. Muñoz: “Podemos was founded to unite the left, but now that the Sumar split has set itself the same goal, the party is in danger of fragmenting”,
According to García, a loss of Podemos weakens the position of the national government. “Podemos could possibly disappear from the Madrid region and other regions and that will have a major impact on the negotiations on the left.” That is why García is also looking at what will happen in Barcelona. “It is very important for the left that mayor Ada Colau retains power, otherwise the whole house of cards will collapse and the political left will have mountains to move before the national elections.” According to the latest polls by research agency CIS, Colau can be re-elected, but Jaume Collboni, of the social-democratic party PSC, is hot on her heels.
On the extreme right, Vox does not look good on the voter either. The party suffers from scandals and is associated with serious crime. “For example, a council member of Vox was recently arrested for drug trafficking, and party prominent Iván Espinosa de los Monteros and his wife are suspected of tax fraud,” said Muñoz.