NK Maribor’s season has started under gloomy stars. KuPS, on the other hand, has a big mountain to climb in the conference league.
On Thursday, the eyes turn to Slovenia, where NK Maribor hosts HJK in the Europa League qualifiers.
Maribor has weakened over the past few seasons and, for example, compared to last season, is clearly the number one Ognjen Mudrinski moved to Poland and a credit player in the center of the midfield Antoine Makoumbou to Cagliari. In total, half a dozen players from the opening have changed scenery.
Game-wise, the team has been in quite a lot of trouble at the beginning of this season and there have been challenges especially with the ball. It has been difficult to break into the finish line and the finish has been tight. Defensive play has still been somewhat functional and against Sheriff, own head remained untouched for a long time. The team has played in a 4-2-3-1 formation this season, but last season we also saw a 4-4-2 formation.
The hosts also have compositional challenges, as the captain and winger have been sidelined Martin Milecmidfield Marko Bozic and placeholder Aleks Pihler. Also, the number one goalkeeper Azbe Jug has been on the sidelines and the opening pier Nino Zugelj moved to Norway.
There are clear challenges with self-confidence, and Sunday’s rather lackluster performance in a losing away game against Koper did not make the situation much easier. The bravest are already claiming that Maribor is in a mini-crisis.
A little bit of searching
On Saturday, HJK took a controlled home victory over IFK Mariehamn with a score of 1–0, although it was not completely convincing in terms of play. The whole season has been a bit of a struggle in terms of gameplay, and the club still hasn’t performed at the level of its own potential.
The team was strengthened in the transfer window, but Paulus Arajuuri not likely and Aapo Halme certainly not yet in playing condition from the topper department. by Lucas Lingman the game permit issues should be in order, however, and the midfielder will be able to start the game to rhythm HJK’s ball game. In this role, Lingman is a great joy for the Club.
By Manuel Martic absence from the midfield is a small minus, Valtteri Morenin and Joona Toivion injuries make the topper section of the Helsinki team narrow. Malik Abubakari has shown himself to be a potential goalscorer so Roope Riskin the absence is not really felt at this point.
Opposite are two teams that have had a hard time scoring. Basically, it wouldn’t be surprising if HJK gets more control and ball control from the match, because Maribor has approached their European games quite clearly through defense.
Maribor comes forward more through the center when the tip drops balls to the bottom. The team turns the game around relatively well after the exploits, but in terms of fundamentals, it is still not in the glory of its previous years. The best way for the club to get forward is through the wing lanes, but the wing supports have to be careful with their moves so that they don’t leave too much space in the back during the changes of situation.
All in all, Maribor is HJK’s best seam to advance to the Euro fields this season, as the Slovenians are beatable.
In the Balkan region, the home advantage is usually a little higher than normal, but a weak start to the season can easily turn the support in a negative direction. I don’t consider Maribor in its current condition to be quite even like HJK, but with the home advantage, the Slovenians start the opening part in a small, 37 percent favorite position. On the other hand, I have given 31 pins to the draw due to the expectation of the match clearly leaning towards a few goals.
In Veikkaus’ odds, the closest to the game is the Club’s win, whose odds are 3.15 and my limit odds for the event are 3.13. In the game format HJK +0, on the other hand, there are no advantages, because Veikkaus’ coefficient is 2.16 and my estimate for the event is 46 percent (limit coefficient 2.17).
I have screwed the goal expectation value to 2.20. With this estimate, there are no benefits available in goal number bets. HJK remains goalless in the opening part with these ratings a little more than once out of three. The most likely final results are 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0.
The match starts at 21:15.
The best betting tip of the day
The best betting idea of the day can also be found in the direction of the European games. In Turku, KuPS will face Young Boys from Bern, and the game is divided in the number of goals bets.
Young Boys is a fiery team that is particularly good at turning the game around. Sure, the team plays a bit more defensively in away games, but KuPS will now face a really tough test with their own defense of negative transitions. KuPS’s defense has not been flawless.
At the same time, KuPS should get ball control and chances to break through long attacks. The team has finishing skills and breaking power, with which even Young Boys can be shaken. Sure, too Simo Valakari can make tactical choices to force guests more into their comfort zone.
Basically, I consider the match to be one with plenty of goals. The match should have a good tempo and I expect the attacks to also wave from one side to the other. These factors naturally increase the expectation of a goal. A small interesting detail for the match can be found in the surface – both teams normally play their home matches on artificial turf, while Turku has a natural grass surface.
The level difference between the teams is significant. Despite the away field, Young Boys is the favorite to win a little more than two times out of three. I have estimated the goal expectation value to be slightly more than 3.10. The betting coefficient of 2.75 on the goal limit for the over option is 1.86. My limit odds for the event is 1.75, so there is an expected value of over-odds suitable for games.
In this bet, half of the bet wins if there are three goals in the match, and if more hits are seen, the entire bet gives a win.
The match starts at 19:00.
Games of the day: KuPS–Young Boys, over 2.75 goals (coefficient 1.86)
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