Hi Patrick, Truss has only been Prime Minister for a month but already the British seem to have had enough of her. Where did it go wrong?
‘Where do I begin. It’s an accumulation. But the root cause is a mini-budget that Truss presented a week and a half ago with a substantial package of tax cuts. She kept a promise, but the way she introduced the plans was terribly clumsy.
‘She devised the budget almost entirely in secret. Nobody knew anything about it except Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. They have chosen to lower the taxes of wealthy Englishmen in particular, something that is politically stupid in times of economic misery. It was predictable that many people find that unfair. Moreover, they were unable to properly explain why their plan would work, which in turn led to unrest in the financial markets.
‘Truss clearly has no political antenna. And maybe that shows that she’s not a great political leader either. It seems she has lost touch with what is going on among the ordinary voters.’
Minister Kwarteng canceled the announced tax cut for high earners on Monday. Does that help Truss?
‘That specific tax cut, the abolition of the 45 percent bracket for people with an income above 150 thousand pounds, was mainly of strong symbolic value. But if you look very carefully at the whole package, it is only a small part. Truss announced tax cuts totaling £45bn, accounting for just £2bn of that. It doesn’t make much sense financially.
“Besides, there are plenty of other discussions about Truss’s plans. The money that is lost on taxes has to come from somewhere. There is talk here and there about cutting benefits. This creates the image that Truss first favors the rich and then wants to cut the very poor. That can remain politically very sensitive.
Meanwhile, tensions within the Conservative party are rising. There is no one in charge, ministers call what suits them best. For the Conservatives, the biggest problem is that Labor benefits from this. That party is rising sharply in the polls.’
Truss will address her party members at the congress today. How much depends on the speech?
“I think this is the most important speech of her life. She has been secretive and now has to open up and convince her party members. In addition, this is the end of the Congress, the leader’s speech is traditionally the grand finale. She should let everyone go home with a good feeling.
“The problem is that, unlike her predecessor Boris Johnson, Truss is not a speaker who can enrapture the audience. Johnson’s lines stood in front of the party conference halls for two to three hours when he came to speak. What Truss has shown so far in this area has at times been staggering. She needs to rise above her normal level today.
‘I am very curious if they will choose a special tactic. Former Prime Minister Theresa May, also not an excellent speaker, once came up with self-mockery and a wooden dance under Abba’s hit Dancing Queen walk up the stage. That worked. Truss will not yet waterloo set up, but she has to do something special. In any case, I’m going to have a look with a bag of chips within reach.’
What are the chances that Truss will have to say goodbye to 10 Downing Street early?
“There are rumors here and there that Truss won’t make it to Easter. There is also talk of her succession. The problem for the Conservatives is that in that case they really cannot put forward a successor themselves again, as after Johnson’s departure. That would be a farce after this failure.
“On the other hand, it is risky to call elections while Truss is still the leader. In that case, the party will in any case suffer significant losses. So it seems there is no way out for the Conservatives.
In any case, it seems that the Conservative party has lost its way in recent years. The group members and ministers are mainly concerned with internal intrigue and have come to take it for granted that they govern. The only straw is that competitor Labor under party leader Keir Starmer is not yet a convincing alternative for many voters. But the Conservatives have to pick themselves up quickly.’