It is now certain that the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will meet in Super Bowl LVIII in the NFL. Unpleasant truths emerged from the losers of the Championship Games. The takeaways from Championship Sunday.
NFL: Questioning Dan Campbell is nonsensical!
It should be clear what is being talked about the most following the Lions’ defeat in San Francisco – even during the game, the discourse on social media was already moving in this direction: Did Dan Campbell get in the game with his 4th-down go gambled away heavily in the second half? The short answer: No, he didn’t!
I would rather argue that he was wrong twice on 4th down decisions before halftime. For me, the punt on 4th & 7 at the Niners 46 yard line and the field goal attempt on 4th & goal with 3 seconds left before halftime would have been situations that should have been played out. From an analytics perspective, these were both go’s.
The fact that the 4th downs went wrong in the second half doesn’t change the fact that they were the right decisions by Campbell. Josh Reynolds dropped a pass completely open the first time – and later a no less critical third attempt, which also killed a drive. In addition, Jared Goff later missed an open receiver on a crossing route on the second 4th down, after which no one was actually open for a new 1st down.
In terms of results, you can of course argue that with two field goals you probably wouldn’t have lost the game. But it’s always easy to say in hindsight. In the heat of the moment, you make decisions that give you the best chance of success in the given situation. And in that respect Campbell was right. Keyword: “Trust the Process”, because only a clear line will bring you long-term success that is not based on luck and chance.
“I don’t regret these decisions. I understand that I’m being questioned now. That’s part of this job,” Campbell said after the game. And if you’re being honest, the Lions probably wouldn’t have the success they’ve had, especially in the past two years, if Campbell hadn’t been so clear about making analytically correct critical decisions.
NFL: Light and shadow with Ravens coordinators
If you want to question something after this Championship Sunday, it would be what the Ravens did against the Chiefs in the AFC. And there are two sides of the coin. On one side is the defense, which gave up two touchdowns in the opponent’s first two drives for the first time this season.
But after that she still allowed three points. Without analyzing the game in detail, it is simply clear that defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald corrected his mistakes at the beginning of simply not blitzing Mahomes, better late than never and then generated significantly more pressure. That stalled the Chiefs offense and gave the team a chance to come back.
Macdonald, who will be interviewing with the Washington Commanders and possibly Seattle Seahawks this week, showed once again why his defense is special and can compete at the highest level.
On the other hand, however, we have an offensive coordinator in Todd Monken who, for some reason, has deviated from his core philosophy. Here we have a crucial difference to Campbell – he did his thing right to the end and can now certainly look in the mirror tomorrow. Monken, on the other hand, unnecessarily threw the Ravens’ core competence out the window.
This team is primarily a run team. What little did they do against the Chiefs, who are very vulnerable to the run? That’s right, they almost completely neglected the run game. Gus Edwards’ first run went for 15 yards. In total he was only allowed to run three times (20 YDS). In total, Baltimore only had 16 carries, eight of which went to Lamar Jackson, most of which didn’t necessarily look planned. What was the plan here?
Especially since the passing game didn’t work at all early on, they could have at least tried it on the ground against the Chiefs’ usual light boxes. The second point that stuck: Where was Odell Beckham Jr., who the Ravens paid $15 million for one season?
The team’s second-best receiver saw a single target before the final quarter. Did you want to keep it for emergencies? The entire offensive game plan didn’t look good and Monken, who has been praised at times for what he’s done this season, was the main reason this unit struggled to get going. The rest was poor execution.
NFL: Lamar Jackson disappoints again
It was certainly the biggest game of his career so far. And in the same, Lamar Jackson, who will most likely be named NFL MVP for the second time next week, sadly continued his modest playoff career. Before the break he completed five passes, one of which was very lucky even to himself. With a few exceptions, his shot plays went nowhere, he lost a fumble in the first half and threw an interception in triple coverage into the end zone in one Situation in which even a field goal would have helped.
Lamar was sometimes reminiscent of his early playoff appearances, in which he was simply completely overwhelmed. He was inaccurate, he couldn’t handle pressure from blitzes – unlike against the Texans in the second half, when he sped up his game and got rid of the ball quicker – and he made uncharacteristic mistakes.
Monken’s play-calling didn’t help him, nor did Zay Flowers’ outrageous mistakes, but this would have been a game in which the league’s MVP would have had to be at his best to lead his team after a strong and dominant regular season to lead to the Super Bowl. But it did not get to that. Lamar was not part of the solution, but part of the problem.
The MVP cannot be taken away from him, but he will not be able to shed his manageable playoff reputation either.
NFL: First look at Super Bowl LVIII
We’ll join us here sport.de In the next two weeks we will be dealing in detail with Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas (February 11th from 11:15 p.m. live on RTL). Today, a quick, first look at what awaits us is enough.
When it comes to storylines, these are the ones that come to mind:
- Chiefs are one win away from a dynasty
- Kyle Shanahan is one win away from confirming his scheme
- Brock Purdy can silence all his critics
Point 1 is obvious. The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the fourth time since 2019. A third title in five years would be the critical number that turns a very good team into a dynasty in the eyes of observers, fans, experts and the media in general. In this respect, that is exactly the goal for the Chiefs. They don’t have much left to prove, but if they want to become one of the big players, they have to win in Vegas.
If Kyle Shanahan wants to shed his reputation as a coach who offers the highest floor in the regular season with his scheme, but cannot win the really big thing, then a victory in the Super Bowl would gradually be necessary. As a reminder: In Super Bowl LI, the Falcons had a pretty decent lead with him as play caller (28:3) before they completely ran things into the wall thanks to his calls. In Super Bowl LIV, his Niners led by ten points in the final quarter, but then fell short against the Chiefs. Again, his decisions were also a factor.
However, you can only partially blame him for losing the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles last year, after all, hardly anyone recovers from the starting quarterback destroying his elbow in the game… Shanahan is now in the Super Bowl for the third time , gradually a title is needed.
And then there is Purdy, who was briefly in the MVP discussion this year before he and his team were overrun by the Ravens (!) on Christmas. The 17-point comeback against the Lions and the game-winning drive a week earlier against the Packers were two good exclamation points for Purdy and his reputation in the league. A victory in the Super Bowl would be the icing on the cake and its ultimate legitimacy. And that also applies to Shanahan’s scheme, because no quarterback has yet implemented it profitably on the biggest stage.
From a purely sporting point of view, I now expect the 49ers to take advantage of the problems in the Chiefs’ run defense. On the other hand, I expect the same from the Chiefs after the Lions rushed for over 100 yards before halftime. In the end, the fire power could be the deciding factor. Purdy has the better passing stations, but the Chiefs have the better quarterback.
It will be exciting and hopefully high-class in the City of Sin.
Marcus Blumberg