The UWV calculates the shortage on the labor market every quarter by dividing the estimated number of unfilled vacancies by the total number of people who have received unemployment benefits for less than six months. At the end of last year, there were almost four open vacancies per job seeker. According to the UWV, the labor market was just not there yet.
Due to the economic recovery after the corona crisis, the number of vacancies rose sharply in the course of 2021, while the number of job seekers fell. At the end of last year, for example, there were more than three quarters more unfilled vacancies than a year earlier, while the number of unemployment benefit recipients fell by 42% in the first six months of their benefit. Compared to the end of 2019, when there was not yet a corona pandemic, there were more than a third more vacancies.
Bankruptcies
Bankruptcies as a result of the end of the corona support are expected to ease the pressure on the labor market a bit, ABN Amro economists write in their own analysis. The arrival of Ukrainian refugees who can and want to work will also make it somewhat easier for employers to find staff. In addition, ABN Amro expects that freelancers will be able to work more hours due to the end of all corona measures.
But also in the years after 2022, according to economists at the bank, there is a risk of ‘structural labor shortages’ due to the aging population. The share of over-65s in the total population will grow from 20% in 2020 to 25% in 2040. At the same time, a lot of work will be added due to major investments in the transition to clean energy and the government’s plans for free childcare.