The Kremlin says Russia only wants to secure provinces in Ukraine it has annexed. That statement implies giving up on Kiev and other Ukrainian regions. According to the British secret service, the Russian army is currently hardly able to recapture recently lost territory.
The Kremlin has never fully disclosed the objectives of the invasion, which it says was partly to protect Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. But it is no longer talking about forcing a regime change in Kiev, as Ukraine has steadily reversed previous Russian territorial victories.
Minimum objective
After several setbacks at the front, Russia seems to be sticking to its minimum goal for the time being: this means full control of the southern and eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
On Dec. 8, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov limited the Ukrainian territory Russia wants to annex to those four provinces it has unilaterally annexed. But none of these provinces is fully under Russian control, and Peskov suggested that in the case of Zaporizhia, Russia has since given up on conquering the rest of the territory.
LOOK. Images show impressive tank battle in Luhansk:
When asked if Moscow wants to annex any more regions than these four, Peskov replied: “There is no question of that. At least no statements have been made in this regard. But there is still a lot of work to be done to liberate the areas.” And he explained in more detail: “By that I mean part of the Donetsk People’s Republic and also those parts that have been annexed by Russia but are being reoccupied by Ukraine.”
Ukrainian troops currently control about 40 percent of Donetsk province and have recaptured part of Luhansk.
Insufficient strength
According to British intelligence, the Russian army is currently barely able to recapture recently lost territory. Russia lacks the necessary clout for this, the British estimate.
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It is unlikely that Russian ground forces will make significant operational progress in the coming months
“Russian ground forces are unlikely to make significant operational progress in the coming months. It is therefore currently unlikely that the Russian strategy will achieve its objectives,” the British Ministry of Defense concludes on the basis of a report from the intelligence services.
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