The NFL regular season came to an entertaining end in Week 18. The Detroit Lions may have lost a top performer unnecessarily, while Arthur Smith’s supposed departure was inglorious. Meanwhile, the official of the year should be decided. The most important findings of the week.
Lions: No rest for starters – was it worth it?
He had already announced at the beginning of the week that Dan Campbell would not give his starters a break in the Detroit Lions’ home game against the Minnesota Vikings. So it wasn’t surprising. In this respect, we don’t need to discuss this any further, especially since there is really no clear data as to whether a break or match practice directly before the playoffs is the right step.
But while the majority of the teams that were already qualified for the playoffs before Week 18 will be competing with all of their top performers from next week, things are probably different in Detroit.
The injury to rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is particularly bitter, as he has really come into his own over the past four to six weeks and has become one of the most important weapons in this offense. According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, he suffered a hyperextended knee and a bone bruise, an MRI revealed. As a result, he will probably have to take a break for a few weeks, which is a bitter blow for the Lions. Campbell said at his press conference only: “It’s not as bad as it looked, but it’s not good news.”
Wide receiver Kalif Raymond also injured his knee. No exact information is known yet, but a bone bruise cannot be ruled out here either. And even after those injuries, Campbell kept his starters on the field. And all just to maintain the vague chance of second place in the NFC. In the end it only came in 3rd place.
So my question is: Was it really worth it? Is it really a big difference whether you play second – for the third time – against the Packers or third against the Rams? Both teams are dangerous and one could argue that the Rams, with Lions legend Matthew Stafford, are a bigger stumbling block than their inexperienced division rival. The Rams will arrive with a full band, the Lions will probably go into the game handicapped. So the risk was too great and, what’s more, unnecessary, since the reward really wouldn’t have been great enough.
Campbell pulled off his tough guy act and got paid for it. This is particularly bitter when you consider that the Rams defense is particularly vulnerable against tight ends. Someone who could have taken advantage of this will now most likely be missing.
NFL: Cry softly, Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith was fired as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons shortly before this article went to press. And that’s certainly not without reason. From the point of view of team owner Arthur Blank, his teams have been too ineffective over the past three years to achieve a different result.
Smith, who was hired for his offensive prowess, led an offense this year that averaged -0.076 EPA/Play, ranking 26th. And this offense was loaded with highly talented players Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts – all recent first-round picks. Is it his fault for not having a decent quarterback throughout his tenure?
Probably not. But he has caused a lot of confusion this season by repeatedly avoiding giving the ball to his playmakers. Instead, he engineered plays like jet sweeps over the third tight end or lots of touches to his backup running back. And why did we see the dynamic Cordarrelle Patterson so rarely? His confused rotation at the QB position didn’t help either, especially after he mocked the public for asking about Desmond Ridder, only to bench him for a few weeks, then for some reason return him to let play. Then bench again and then let play again…
The list of strange decisions is long. And for that reason alone, a separation for “Modern Day Jeff Fisher” – he has now completed three seasons in a row with a 7-10 record – can be justified.
The probably negative highlight of this performance was the 17:48 defeat in New Orleans in a game in which they even had a chance of winning the division, which says a lot about the NFC South. At the end of the game, Smith angrily ran up to Saints head coach Dennis Allen because he was displeased that the Saints went for a touchdown with 70 seconds left to play – Jamaal Williams ran from the one-yard line following an interception by Logan Woodside into the end zone – instead of simply kneeling down.
I’ll leave out the fact that Allen then apologized because the players did it of their own free will to give Williams another TD. The basic attitude here should be: If you don’t like your opponent scoring a lot of points, just stop them. There’s this famous movie quote from Tom Hanks, who once said, “There’s no crying in baseball.” And that should also apply to football, especially if someone still scores at the end. Did the Broncos cry when they were run over by the Dolphins? Or did the Dolphins cry when they were dismantled by the Ravens the previous week? I don’t believe.
NFL: Nick Caserio is the official of the year
Super Bowl LVIII is less than five weeks away in Las Vegas and shortly before that the awards will be given out for the most outstanding individuals of the season. One award – at least – should also go to Houston. DeMeco Ryans is a clear candidate for Coach of the Year and CJ Stroud could be Offensive Rookie of the Year, although that will be a neck-and-neck race with Puka Nacua. But today I’m talking about Executive of the Year.
Who deserves it more this year than Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio? He has been in office since 2021 and has certainly received a lot of criticism for the radical course he took from the start. Certainly from me too. But his approach of clear-cutting right from the start, sending away everything that wasn’t on the tree at three, and then mostly only bringing in short-term temporary help, paid off in the end.
This season he probably achieved his masterpiece with a draft that the Texans can benefit from for a few years to come. His first four picks all became starters, and Nico Collins, a third-round pick in Caserio’s first draft, also developed into a star.
With the second pick he drafted CJ Stroud, the Texans’ new franchise quarterback, who also made an immediate impact. Then came the trade for the third pick, which also brought edge rusher Will Anderson to Texas. He set a team record for sacks by a rookie (7). Both were elected team captains as rookies. Round 2 followed with Juice Scruggs, who developed into a starter at left guard in the second half of the season after initial injury problems and will probably continue to be a starter on this offensive line for a long time. And then there was Tank Dell in lap 3. Who knows what he would have been capable of if he hadn’t broken his leg a few weeks ago. Until then, he also set standards in this offense.
This team has been one of the worst in the league in recent years and the multiple coaching dismissals in the recent past certainly didn’t help either. In the run-up to this season, the Texans were once again a candidate for a top-five pick, but thanks to Caserio, this squad is definitely presentable again and has actually reached the playoffs for the first time. A magnificent achievement and a remarkable turnaround in just three years. Hats off!
NFL: Outlook for the offseason – Bears in focus
The 2024 regular season is over and before we take a quick look at the playoffs – we will do this in more detail on sport.de in the coming days and weeks, starting with my playoff power ranking on Wednesday! – let’s take a look at what awaits us in the upcoming offseason.
Although free agency doesn’t start until March 13th, the draft at the end of April will once again be groundbreaking. And the Chicago Bears in particular currently have control over how it will go. They have the first overall pick from the Carolina Panthers and face a landmark decision for their short- and long-term future. Do they draft a quarterback – presumably Caleb Williams – or do they stick with Justin Fields, who is a strong playmaker but not necessarily a good quarterback and ultimately hasn’t really done much to change that impression.
This also raises the question of whether they will exercise the option for a fifth year of contract for Fields or trade him. And if they keep him, we will soon talk about a lucrative contract extension at market prices. And these are likely to be around $50 million per year. So are you so convinced of Fields or are you risking the next new start at quarterback?
And: If you actually see Fields as the franchise QB, what do you do with the top pick? Do you really draft wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or do you trade the pick to one of the many desperate teams that desperately need a new QB? The Commanders and Patriots behind them will most certainly go after quarterback, so this would be an ideal spot for a trade that would deliver even more draft capital to Illinois.
There is no discernible trend yet, but this storyline will probably keep us busy for the longest time this spring in the near future – i.e. after the playoffs and after the coaching decisions.
NFL: Outlook for the playoffs
The storylines that await us on Super Wild Card Weekend alone are already great to watch. Matthew Stafford meets his former team Detroit, the Packers have to go to their former coach Mike McCarthy in Dallas and in the AFC the Bills ended up winning the AFC East and are therefore officially the biggest challengers for the Baltimore Ravens. That also means the Dolphins have to go to the Arrowhead Icebox on Saturday night. Football heart, what more do you want?
But if you take a closer look at the field of participants, what you notice is that a lot is possible. Almost everything is open. In the NFC alone, anyone can beat anyone in Round 1 and no one would probably be surprised by anything. Will the Eagles fail in Tampa? Why not, considering how the Eagles are defensively and offensively. Can Stafford win in Detroit? Sure, he’s done it enough times already. Do the Packers have a chance against the Cowboys, who are undefeated at home? Needless to say, considering that Dallas has its problems against teams that aren’t a total loss.
And in the AFC I think we have already learned that everyone can win and, above all, lose against everyone. The Texans’ matchup against the Browns is probably the most even. No one would have expected both teams here, for whatever reason. And here we see my personal favorites for Coach of the Year in the NFL against each other. Pure excitement!
It is of course bitter that the Dolphins, who were once considered one of the big favorites and have now – naturally – lost twice in a row against good to very good teams and hardly saw land, now have to play away. As a team from Florida, they are not used to the cold and are not built for it, even if they pushed the run game against Buffalo. Now they have to show that it is possible at the currently announced -12 degrees Celsius. The Chiefs can certainly be beaten, but can they also be beaten by the Dolphins, who already lost to them in Frankfurt?
In any case, we can look forward to an entertaining Super Wild Card Weekend.
Marcus Blumberg