Juve out of Europe? UEFA thinks about it

Time is running out. UEFA can wait for Italy, but not too long. There are cup entries. We need to complete the list of teams expected from the preliminaries, playoffs and summer draws. In short, there is a discreet hurry. If the investigation into the capital gains lengthens, Nyon will not wait for our judges but will independently decide the fate of Juve with its parallel investigation. Certainly the condemnation of the managers and the confirmation of the “unsportsmanlike” behavior do not help the bianconeri: the risk is to remain outside Europe for at least a year. Winning the Europa League would not change anything for the Nyon judges, but it would be essential in order not to serve a possible disqualification in two years, thus lengthening purgatory. Then comes the second line of inquiry, the one relating to salaries. And let’s not talk about the Superlega and the sentence of the EU Court expected for June. All in all, a big headache. But let’s go in order.

If you don’t qualify…

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The first crossroads concerns the qualification (or otherwise) of Juve for the cups. If the black and whites don’t make it — because they finish beyond sixth or seventh place, because they don’t win the Coppa Italia or the Europa League… — the urgency disappears. UEFA will be able to afford to wait for the conclusions of the Italian justice system. However, it would be a problem for Juve: given that the punishments are served in the first “useful” season, in case we wouldn’t talk about it before ’24-25. If, on the other hand, Juve wins a place for one of the three cups, the scenario changes.

If you qualify…

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Let’s say that Juve has the right to a place in the next cups. After the Champions League final, on 10 June in Istanbul, UEFA will have to define the list of all the teams registered for the Champions League, Europe and the Conference League. Of course, no one is deluded that the trial history is closed for that day. Next to the name Juve we will have a question mark. UEFA can give Italy another couple of months or so, let’s say until the end of July/beginning of August. Not further, because at the end of August (24 and 31) an Italian will have to make her debut in the Conference playoffs. And so what?

Long times

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For some time now, UEFA has been carrying out a parallel and independent investigation with respect to the Italian one. He has already received all the documents from the Turin prosecutor’s office. He’s examining the court papers. In Nyon they are quite optimistic about the fact that the Italian decision can arrive by the end of June, a plea deal would speed things up. In any case, the Coni guarantee college confirmed the convictions of the managers and the anti-sportsmanship (the famous article 4): a new motivation and a reduced penalty are expected. However, if the Italian justice goes slowly, then the UEFA Fair Play commission will decide.

What risks

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Fixed points, we said, the condemnation of the managers and the proven unsportsmanlikeness. But from a UEFA point of view there would be more. In fact, Juve negotiated Fair Play because it was outside the parameters. If the investigation were to prove that the figures disclosed are false, the plea deal would not have been granted. Or maybe not under those conditions. Virtually impossible to escape punishment. This is a serious case. Milan was out of parameters. PSG and City inflated sponsor values, but the revenue was real. Here it would be false financial statements communicated to auditors, shareholders, FGCI, UEFA. The specter of a disqualification looms. Naturally starting with the first cup for which Juve qualifies. That’s why a success in the Euroleague, or a useful placement in the league, would be essential. To prevent a possible absence from Europe from being prolonged with dramatic effects also on the accounts.

The other themes

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No one today can say exactly what will happen. A process involves two degrees of judgment and then the CAS, the Cassation of sport which has often surprised with its decisions. But it’s not over. Then there would be the second line of inquiry, the one on salaries. And, above all, the Superlega question. If the EU Court confirmed the opinion of Advocate General Rantos, there would be freedom to organize a Super League, however incompatible with the Champions League. Either one or the other. And therefore Juve, Real and Barcelona should choose which one to give up. Today it seems like science fiction to imagine a Champions League without three of its historic protagonists. Everyone would lose: the rebel clubs, UEFA and football.